基于跨区域气流模拟的船舶防疫风险评估  

Risk Assessment for Ship Epidemic Prevention with Cross-regional Airflow Simulation

作　　者：黄戈 郭歆 蒋永旭 黄蕾 HUANG Ge;GUO Xin;JIANG Yong-xu;HUANG Lei(China Merchants Industry Technology(Shanghai)Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200137,China)

机构地区：[1]招商局工业科技(上海)有限公司,上海200137

出　　处：《船海工程》2024年第6期83-88,共6页Ship & Ocean Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72374141)。

摘　　要：针对目前船舶设计领域缺少对设计防疫安全进行合理评估的情况,开发建立一种可量化的船舶内部防疫安全风险评估方法。由船舶内部气流传播及病毒扩散机理入手,建立病毒传播计算模型,通过耦合感染概率计算方法,利用CONTAM气流模拟软件辅助计算,实现对船舶内部具体空间感染概率的计算和最大感染人数的评估。计算结果表明,该方法可实现对船舶内部所有空间感染概率的精确计算,可以适用于所有通过空气及气溶胶传播病毒的评估。此评估方法可进行快速实时的风险评估并输出量化结果。结合设计方案或管理方案,可实现不同策略和设计下防疫安全水平的有效对比及关键区域排查。为后续船舶设计建造及运营管理提供可量化的安全指标,从而实现船舶的防疫安全水平的低成本管控提升。In view of the lack of reasonable assessment of epidemic prevention safety in ship design,a quantifiable risk assessment method was developed for epidemic prevention safety in ship.Starting with the transmission mechanism of air flow and virus spread inside the ship,the calculation model of virus transmission was established.By coupling the calculation method of infection probability and using CONTAM air flow simulation software to assist the calculation,the calculation of infection probability in the specific space inside the ship and the evaluation of the maximum number of infected people were realized.The results showed that this method can accurately calculate the infection probability of all space inside the ship,and can be applied to the evaluation of all airborne and aerosol transmitted viruses.This assessment method enables rapid real-time risk assessment and quantified results.Combined with the design scheme or management scheme,the effective comparison of epidemic prevention safety level and key point investigation under different strategies and designs can be realized.It provides quantifiable safety indicators for ship design,construction and operation management,to achieve the improvement of ship epidemic prevention safety level with reasonable cost.

关 键 词：气流模拟 船舶防疫 风险评估 

分 类 号：U676.7[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]