贸易政策不确定背景下地方环境污染变化的影响研究——基于我国281个地级市的实证分析  

Study on the Impact of Changes in Local Environmental Pollution under the Background of Trade Policy Uncertainty:An Empirical Analysis Based on 281 Prefecture-level Cities in China

作　　者：刘运胜 LIU Yun-sheng

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《科学决策》2024年第10期35-54,共20页Scientific Decision Making

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(22JZD012);国家自然科学基金重点项目(71832010);国家自然科学基金面上项目(72072138)。

摘　　要：本文基于中国2003-2022年281个地级市面板数据,采用固定效应模型,系统考察了中国贸易政策不确定性背景下地级市环境污染变化的影响研究。研究发现,贸易政策不确定性的上升显著地减少了环境污染,且这一结论在一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。机制分析表明,贸易政策不确定性可能通过抑制社会投资、倒逼企业进行技术创新、促进产业转型升级三个方面作用于环境污染。进一步研究中,发现贸易政策不确定性上升的环境治理效应在城市规模、城市经济发展水平、贸易政策不确定性强度等方面存在异质性。本文有助于拓展贸易政策不确定性和环境治理两大领域的研究视野,并且实践上为各地区在贸易政策不确定性条件下的环境污染治理提供了经验支持。Based on the panel data of 281 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2022,this article uses a fixed effects model to systematically examine the impact of changes in environmental pollution in prefecture-level cities under the background of China’s trade policy uncertainty.The study finds that the increase in trade policy uncertainty significantly reduces environmental pollution,and this conclusion remains true after a series of robustness tests.Mechanism analysis shows that trade policy uncertainty may affect environmental pollution in three ways:inhibiting social investment,forcing enterprises to carry out technological innovation,and promoting industrial transformation and upgrading.Further research found that the environmental governance effects of rising trade policy uncertainty are heterogeneous in terms of city size,urban economic development level,and intensity of trade policy uncertainty.This article helps to expand the research horizons in the two fields of trade policy uncertainty and environmental governance,and in practice provides empirical support for environmental pollution governance in various regions under conditions of trade policy uncertainty.

关 键 词：贸易政策不确定 环境污染 规模效应 结构效应 技术效应 

分 类 号：F710[经济管理—产业经济]