基于PLUS与InVEST模型的黄河流域九省(区)碳储量变化分析  

Analysis of Carbon Stock Changes in Nine Provinces(Regions)of the Yellow River Basin Based on PLUS and InVEST Models

作　　者：丛中笑 刘金花[1] 孙增禹 郑永兴 孔凡豪 刁克浩 CONG Zhongxiao;LIU Jinhua;SUN Zengyu;ZHENG Yongxing;KONG Fanhao;DIAO Kehao(School of Management Engineering,Shandong Jianzhu University,Jinan 250101,China)

机构地区：[1]山东建筑大学管理工程学院,山东济南250101

出　　处：《人民黄河》2024年第12期24-30,36,共8页Yellow River

基　　金：教育部人文社科项目(23YJCZH038);山东省自然科学基金资助项目(ZR2023MD061);济南市闲置土地处置和防控机制研究项目(Z21014S);新时期济南市土地储备开发运行成效及机制优化研究项目(Z23004)。

摘　　要：土地利用变化是造成陆地生态系统碳储量变化的主要原因,准确评估陆地生态系统碳储量,对加强生态系统保护、实现双碳目标意义重大。为了给黄河流域土地利用结构优化及管理决策提供科学依据,基于InVEST及PLUS模型,分析2000—2020年及2030年3种情景(惯性发展、耕地保护、生态保护)下土地利用格局,评估各阶段碳储量变化特征。结果显示:黄河流域九省(区)2000年、2010年、2020年碳储量分别为19324.40×10^(6)、19178.39×10^(6)、19303.26×10^(6)t,整体呈U形分布,主要原因是2000—2010年以草地为主的生态用地大量减少。2030年惯性发展、耕地保护、生态保护3种情景下碳储量分别为19522.68×10^(6)、19630.36×10^(6)、19673.35×10^(6)t,均呈增加趋势。其中生态保护和耕地保护情景较惯性发展情景碳储量增量更大。而对碳储量提升明显的土地利用类型变化主要是耕地向林地转换、草地向林地转换等。研究表明在耕地保护和生态保护情景下,生态退耕、植树造林、未利用地开发、建设用地复垦增绿等手段对增加区域碳储量、提高区域碳汇能力效果明显。Land use change is the main cause of carbon stock change in terrestrial ecosystems.Accurate assessment of carbon storage in ter⁃restrial ecosystem is of great significance to strengthen ecosystem protection and realize the goal of double carbon.This paper analyzed the land use pattern under three scenarios(inertial development,cropland protection and ecological protection)from 2000 to 2020 and 2030 with the help of the InVEST model and the PLUS model,and evaluated the characteristics of the changes in carbon stock at each stage.The results show that the carbon stocks in the nine provinces(regions)of the Yellow River Basin in 2000,2010 and 2020 are 19324.40×10^(6) t,19178.39×10^(6) t and 19303.26×10^(6) t respectively,with an overall U⁃shaped distribution,mainly because of the large reduction of ecological land mainly in grassland from 2000 to 2010.The carbon stock in the three scenarios of inertial development,cropland protection and ecologi⁃cal protection in 2030 is 19522.68×10^(6) t,19630.36×10^(6) t and 19673.35×10^(6) t respectively,and all of them showing an increasing trend.Among them,the ecological protection scenario and the cropland protection scenario have higher carbon stock increment than the inertia de⁃velopment scenario.The land type changes that significantly enhance carbon stock are mainly the conversion from cropland land to forest land and the conversion from grassland to forest land.The study shows that in the context of arable land protection and ecological protection,eco⁃logical fallowing,afforestation,unused land development and reclamation of construction land to increase greening are effective in increasing the regional carbon stock and improving the regional carbon sink capacity,which provides a scientific basis for the decision⁃making on the management of land use in the Yellow River Basin and the optimization of its structure.

关 键 词：土地利用变化 PLUS模型 InVEST模型 碳储量 黄河流域 

分 类 号：X37[环境科学与工程—环境工程] TV882.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]