水资源约束下的黄河下游河口区作物种植结构优化研究  

Optimization of Crop Planting Structure in Estuary Area of Lower Yellow River Basin Under Water Resources Constraint

作　　者：毕春宁 孙斌[1] 薛建春[1] 李鹏明 吴双 BI Chunning;SUN Bin;XUE Jianchun;LI Pengming;WU Shuang(School of Economics and Management,Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology,Baotou 014010,China;Shandong Institute of Water Resources Science,Jinan 250014,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古科技大学经济与管理学院,内蒙古包头014010 [2]山东省水利科学研究院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《人民黄河》2024年第12期117-122,共6页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(42061051);内蒙古自然科学基金资助项目(2021LHMS07002)。

摘　　要：针对黄河用水紧张与作物安全生产之间的矛盾,并考虑黄河流域降水量年际变化较大的情况,以黄河下游河口区为研究对象,以可供灌溉水资源量作为刚性约束,选取作物经济效益、综合水分生产率、生态效益为研究目标,基于信息熵理论和模糊优选理论构建多目标优化模型(E-FOS-MOP),探究河口区现状年作物在不同降水保证率(50%、75%、95%)下的最优种植结构。结果表明:不同保证率下优化结果均是以粮食作物为主的“粮-经”二元结构,降水量的变化对当地作物种植结构优化结果影响较大,优化后可满足河口区粮食生产需求。50%、75%保证率下,对优化前后粮食总产量、经济效益、水分生产率、生态效益、农业用水量进行了对比分析,表明优化后的种植结构不仅减少了灌溉用水量,而且各项指标均有很大提升,特别是蔬菜、瓜果经济作物,显著提高河口区种植业的综合效益;95%保证率下,随着地表水资源的限制和农田灌溉需求的增加,模型在选择综合效益好的作物时受到抑制,导致各项指标比优化前有所降低。In view of the contradiction between water shortage and crop safety production in the Yellow River Basin,and considering the wide inter⁃annual variation of precipitation in the Yellow River Basin,this paper took the estuary area of Dongying City in the lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin as the research object,took the amount of available irrigation water resources as the rigid constraint and selected the three research objectives of economic benefits of crops,comprehensive water productivity and ecological benefit.Based on information entropy theo⁃ry and fuzzy optimization theory,it built multi⁃objective optimization model(E⁃FOS⁃MOP)and studied the optimal planting structure of cur⁃rent annual crops in the estuary area under different precipitation guarantee rates(50%,75%and 95%).The results show that under differ⁃ent guarantee rates,the optimized results are all based on grain crop⁃economic dual structure.The change of precipitation has a great impact on the optimized results of local crop planting structure,after optimization,it can meet the grain production demand in the estuary area.Un⁃der the guarantee rates of 50%and 75%,the total grain output,economic benefit,water productivity,ecological benefit and agricultural wa⁃ter consumption were compared and analyzed.The results show that the adjusted planting structure can not only reduce irrigation water con⁃sumption,but also greatly improve various indexes,especially the increase of vegetables,melons and fruits cash crops can significantly im⁃prove the comprehensive benefit of planting industry in the estuary area.Under the guarantee rate of 95%,with the limitation of surface water resources and the increase of irrigation demand of farmland,the model is inhibited in selecting crops with good comprehensive benefits,re⁃sulting in a decrease of various indexes compared with before optimization.

关 键 词：降水保证率 多目标优化模型 种植结构优化 河口区 黄河下游 

分 类 号：S127[农业科学—农业基础科学] S274