中国遭受美国关税壁垒的行业特征识别与应对策略——基于对GVC位置-增加值贡献率的测算  

Identification of Industry Characteristics and Response Strategies for China's Encounter with U.S.Tariff Barriers-Based on the Measurement of GVC Position-Value Added Contribution Rate

作　　者：刘航[1] 南娜娜 孙早[1] LIU Hang;NAN Nana;SUN Zao(Xi’an Jiaotong University)

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院

出　　处：《国际贸易》2024年第11期65-77,共13页Intertrade

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“基于资本规范健康发展的技术赶超领域产能过剩防范化解机制研究”(22BJY257);陕西省创新能力支撑计划软科学一般项目“进口来源国基础研究投入对陕西工业高质量发展的溢出效应研究”(2021KRM039)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：2018年以来,美国政府针对中国进口商品分批次实施高额关税制裁。尽管这不会从根本上扭转中国产业在全球价值链(GVC)中地位攀升的整体进程,但难免对特定行业的企业构成一定威胁,引发优势产品供需失衡等局部矛盾。文章利用OECD多区域投入产出数据库1995—2018年的数据,以中国受到关税制裁冲击较大的行业为样本,测算了其在GVC的位置和境外行业对其增加值贡献率。结果发现,这些行业的GVC位置趋于下游,对美国同类行业的上游依存度不高,但对发达国家的批发和零售业以及美国的专业、科学和技术服务业有着较高的上游依存度。此外,中国的汽车、挂车和半挂车,其他非金属矿物产品这两个行业虽然还未受到美国关税壁垒较严重的冲击,但结合其在GVC的位置与对外依存度的综合状况,可预判有可能遭受美国新的关税壁垒。针对美国可能实施的新一轮关税制裁,中国应从信息监测、制度安排、预案动态优化等维度构建可行的应对机制。Since 2018,the U.S.government has implemented high tariffs on Chinese imports in batches.While this will not fundamentally reverse the overall process of China's industries ascending the global value chain(GVC),it does present specific threats to firms in specific industries,leading to a series of localized conflicts such as imbalances in the supply and demand of dominant products.Utilizing data from the OECD Multi-Regional Input-Output Database for the period 1995-2018,this study measures the GVC position of industries affected by large tariff sanctions and the contribution of overseas industries to their value added.The results reveal that the GVC positions of these industries tend to be downstream,with low upstream dependence on similar industries in the U.S.,but high upstream dependence on“wholesale and retail trade”in developed countries and“professional,scientific,and technical services”in the U.S.Additionally,the“automobiles,trailers and semi-trailers”and“other non-metallic mineral products”have not yet been significantly impacted by the U.S.tariff barriers,but considering their GVC positions and external dependence,it can be predicted that they may face new U.S.tariff barriers in the future.In response to the possibility of a new round of tariff sanctions by the U.S.,China should establish a viable mechanism for countermeasures,focusing on information monitoring,institutional arrangements,and dynamic optimization of contingency plans.

关 键 词：中美贸易 关税壁垒 全球价值链 增加值贡献率 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易] F757.12[经济管理—产业经济]