考虑可再生能源不确定性的风-光-储容量最优配比  

Optimal Ratio of Wind-Solar-Storage Capacity Considering the Uncertainty of Renewable Energy

作　　者：黄碧斌 孟子涵 冯凯辉 周倩 王皓宇 HUANG Bibin;MENG Zihan;FENG Kaihui;ZHOU Qian;WANG Haoyu(State Grid Energy Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 102209,China;State Grid Chongqing Electric Power Company,Chongqing 400014,China;Economic and Technological Research Institute,State Grid Chongqing Electric Power Company,Chongqing 401121,China)

机构地区：[1]国网能源研究院有限公司,北京102209 [2]国网重庆市电力公司,重庆400014 [3]国网重庆市电力公司经济技术研究院,重庆401121

出　　处：《水力发电》2024年第12期94-99,111,共7页Water Power

基　　金：国家电网公司总部科技项目(4000-202327094A-1-1-ZN)。

摘　　要：由于风能和太阳能的供应受到天气条件的影响,风-光-储容量的分布具有显著的不确定性。现有的容量配比方法往往忽视了这种分布特征的约束,仅通过功率等多约束求解模型,可能导致结果出现波动,给储能系统的容量配比准确计算带来困难。为此,在设计蓄电池最优容量分布计算方法的基础上,提出了一种考虑可再生能源不确定性的风-光-储容量最优配比方法。首先建立风力发电、光伏发电模型,基于二者相互关系构建了蓄电池容量分布模型,以估计最优输出功率分布,并据此获得蓄电池最佳容量分布。其次,在充分考虑了可再生能源不确定性的条件下,以最佳容量分布为约束条件,构建了一个以总发电量最大化为目标函数的容量配比优化模型。最后,通过利用约束条件确保输出功率和负荷变化特征的一致性,从而得到最优装机容量,实现风-光-储容量最优配比。实验结果表明,所提方法能够有效实现风-光-储的最优容量配比,确保供电正常需求,同时也避免了可再生能源浪费,为电网的稳定运行和资源的高效利用提供了新的策略。Due to the influence of weather conditions on the supply of wind and solar energy,the distribution of wind-solar-storage capacity exhibits significant uncertainty.Existing capacity allocation methods often overlook the constraints imposed by this distribution characteristic and solely rely on multi-constraint solution models involving power,which may lead to fluctuations in results and pose difficulties in accurately calculating the capacity allocation of energy storage systems.To address this issue,a method for optimizing the capacity allocation of wind-solar-storage systems that considers the uncertainty of renewable energy is proposed based on the design of an optimal capacity distribution calculation method for batteries.Firstly,the models for wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation are established,and a battery capacity distribution model is constructed based on their interrelationships to estimate the optimal output power distribution and derive the optimal battery capacity distribution accordingly.Then,with full consideration of the uncertainty of renewable energy,an optimization model for capacity allocation with the objective function of maximizing total power generation is constructed by using the optimal capacity distribution as a constraint.Finally,by utilizing constraints to ensure consistency between output power and load variation characteristics,the optimal installed capacity is obtained,and the optimal capacity allocation for wind-solar-storage systems is realized.Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively achieve optimal capacity allocation for wind-solar-storage systems,and ensure normal power supply demand while avoiding waste of renewable energy,thereby providing a new strategy for stable grid operation and efficient resource utilization.

关 键 词：可再生能源不确定性 风-光-储发电 容量配比 化学储能 负荷匹配 约束条件 总发电量 目标函数 

分 类 号：TK019[动力工程及工程热物理]