呼和浩特气传花粉气象因子影响分析及预测研究  

Analysis and Prediction of Meteorological Factors Influence on Airborne Pollen in Hohhot

作　　者：王佳 郭春燕 王鹏 Wang Jia;Guo Chunyan;Wang Peng(Meteorological Service Center of Inner Mongolia,Hohhot 010051,China;Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Environmental Monitoring General Station,Hohhot 010050,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古自治区气象服务中心,呼和浩特010051 [2]内蒙古自治区环境监测总站,呼和浩特010050

出　　处：《科技通报》2024年第11期33-41,共9页Bulletin of Science and Technology

基　　金：中央引导地方发展资金项目(2020ZY0019);内蒙古自治区科技计划项目(2022YFSJ0032);中国气象局软科学研究项目(2023ZZXM03);内蒙古自治区气象局科技创新项目(nmqxkjcx202323);环境卫生科研项目(2023NMYF-HJ014)。

摘　　要：本文利用呼和浩特市2019—2023年4—9月的气传花粉浓度实况数据和同期气象数据,分析呼和浩特花粉浓度的变化特征及影响要素之间的关系。在此基础上,采用统计方法建立花粉浓度预报模型。结果表明:近年来,呼和浩特花粉年总量表现为“W”型,但整体呈下降趋势,花粉浓度年内峰值出现在8月底至9月初,且花粉浓度日变化具有明显的不连续特征;不同时间段,不同气象要素对花粉浓度的影响具有差异性。经检验,花粉浓度预报模型能够满足花粉预报业务需求。Based on the monitoring data of air-borne pollen concentration in Hohhot from April to September 2019 to 2023 and the meteorological data of the same period,the changes of pollen concentration in Hohhot were analyzed,and the relationship between the influencing factors was analyzed.On this basis,the pollen concentration prediction model was developed using statistical.The results showed that the annual total amount of pollen has shown a"W"shape and the total amount of pollen showed a decreasing trend in Hohhot in recent years,the peak pollen concentration within the year occurs from the end of August to the beginning of September,and the daily variation of pollen concentration has obvious discontinuous characteristics;The influence of different meteorological elements on pollen concentration was different in different time periods;Through testing,the pollen concentration prediction models established can meet the needs of pollen prediction services.

关 键 词：气传花粉 影响分析 预报模型 检验 呼和浩特 

分 类 号：P463.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]