“丝绸之路经济带”对旅游经济的影响——基于双重差分的实证研究  

On the Impact of“Silk Road Economic Belt”on Tourism Economy--An Empirical Study Based on Difference-in-differences

作　　者：马燚发 张滢[1] 王明辰 MA Yi-fa;ZHANG Ying;WANG Ming-chen(Xinjiang University of Finance&Economics,Urumqi,Xinjiang,830012,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学,新疆乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《武汉商学院学报》2024年第4期19-27,共9页Journal of Wuhan Business University

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金《新疆丝绸之路文化遗产空间认知与可视化研究》(项目编号:ZX20220095);新疆财经大学科研项目《新疆文化资源和旅游产业耦合机理与实证研究》(项目编号:XJWT202312)。

摘　　要：基于31个省份2010年至2019年的面板数据,结合双重差分和双向固定效应模型,探讨“丝绸之路经济带”对旅游经济的影响。研究结果表明:“丝绸之路经济带”显著促进了旅游经济的发展,并且该结论在经过多种稳健性检验后仍然成立。其次,中介效应作用机制检验结果显示,“丝绸之路经济带”通过旅游资源配置,国内投资和国外对内投资以及两者的协同作用,显著促进了旅游经济的发展。此外,异质性分析结果表明:“丝绸之路经济带”对东部和中西部旅游经济的影响均正向显著,但对中西部旅游经济的影响更大;相较于大型省份和经济发达省份,“丝绸之路经济带”对小型省份和经济欠发达省份的旅游经济的影响更显著。Based on the panel data of 31 provinces from 2010 to 2019,this study uses difference-in-differences and two-way fixed effect model to explore the impact of“Silk Road Economic Belt”on tourism economy.The findings show that(1)“Silk Road Economic Belt”has significantly boosted the development of tourism economy,and this conclusion remains valid after undergoing various robustness checks;(2)the results of mediation mechanism test show that“Silk Road Economic Belt”significantly promotes the development of tourism economy through the allocation of tourism resources,domestic investment,and foreign inward investment,as well as the synergistic effect of both;(3)the heterogeneity analysis shows that“Silk Road Economic Belt”has a positively significant impact on both the eastern and central-western tourism economy with a more pronounced effect on the latter,and that compared to large and economically developed provinces,the“Silk Road Economic Belt”has a more significant impact on the tourism economy of small and economically underdeveloped provinces.

关 键 词：丝绸之路经济带 旅游经济 双重差分 双向固定效应 异质性 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理]