我国主要超大城市人口减少:态势、成因与对策建议  

Population decline in major mega-cities in China:Trends,causes,and countermeasures

作　　者：赵峥[1] 郭靖 徐海东 张诗琪[2] ZHAO Zheng;GUO Jing;XU Haidong;ZHANG Shiqi(Institute of Public Administration and Human Resources,Development Research Center of the State Council,Beijing 100010,China;School of Government,Shenzhen University,Shenzhen 518060,China;Global Megacity Governance Institute,Shenzhen University,Shenzhen 518060,China;National Academy of Economic Strategy,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100010,China)

机构地区：[1]国务院发展研究中心公共管理与人力资源研究所,北京100010 [2]深圳大学政府管理学院,广东深圳518060 [3]深圳大学全球特大型城市治理研究院,广东深圳518060 [4]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院,北京100010

出　　处：《重庆理工大学学报（社会科学）》2024年第11期1-8,共8页Journal of Chongqing University of Technology（Social Science）

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究基金青年项目“超大和特大城市人口密度的微观决定机理与最优区间研究”(23YJC790037);广东省社会科学省市共建项目“深圳建设全球标杆城市的战略研究”(GD23XYJ88);中国社会科学院创新工程项目“中国式现代化视域下的城市与房地产发展”(2024CJY0105);深圳市人文社会科学重点研究基地支持。

摘　　要：超大城市是国家和地区经济社会发展的动力源和增长极。目前,我国主要超大城市集中出现了较为明显的人口减少现象,但不同城市人口变化的特征和趋势存在显著差异。深入分析我国主要超大城市人口减少的基本态势,通过详实的数据统计,揭示上海、北京、深圳、广州、天津等城市在2013—2022年间常住人口的变化情况。研究发现,尽管部分城市如成都和重庆的人口依然流入,但增量同比有所下降,而北京、上海、天津、广州和深圳则出现不同程度的常住人口减少。这表明我国超大城市人口减少问题在一定程度上反映了城市发展的客观规律,也受到宏观人口趋势、外部压力冲击、城市规划设计、产业转型升级、城市之间竞争等多重因素的影响。超大城市人口减少的问题对城市发展既是挑战也是机遇。未来,超大城市应以人口“减量”为契机,贯彻落实人民城市理念,聚焦高品质生活、高质量发展、高效能治理,加快转变城市发展方式,不断提升城市综合发展水平,持续增强城市的人口吸引力和承载力,以应对人口减少带来的挑战,并抓住其中的发展机遇。Mega-cities are the driving force and growth pole of national and regional economic and social development.At present,there is a significant population decline in major mega cities in China,but there are significant differences in the characteristics and trends of population changes among different cities.This article provides an in-depth analysis of the basic trend of population decline in major mega cities in China.Through detailed data statistics,it reveals the changes of the permanent population in the major mega cities such as Shanghai,Beijing,Shenzhen,Guangzhou,and Tianjin from 2013 to 2022.Research has found that although some cities such as Chengdu and Chongqing still have population inflows,the year-on-year growth is a step down with Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin,Guangzhou,and Shenzhen having experienced varying degrees of permanent population decline.This indicates that the population decline in China’s mega cities reflects to some extent the objective laws of urban development,and is also influenced by multiple factors such as macro population trends,external pressure shocks,urban planning and design,industrial transformation and upgrading,and competition between cities.The problem of population decline in mega cities is both a challenge and an opportunity for urban development.In the future,the mega cities should take the opportunity of population reduction,implement the concept of people’s cities,focus on high-quality living,high-quality development,and efficient governance,accelerate the transformation of urban development mode,continuously improve the comprehensive development level of cities,and continuously enhance the population attraction and carrying capacity of cities to cope with the challenges brought by population reduction and seize the development opportunities therein.

关 键 词：超大城市 人口减少 城市高质量发展 人口吸引力 城市承载力 

分 类 号：F812.2[经济管理—财政学] F424.2