我国围产儿死亡率时空分布及预测分析  

Spatiotemporal distribution and prediction of perinatal mortality rate in China

作　　者：魏佳慧 林琪菲 李向云 李国菊 WEI Jiahui;LIN Qifei;LI Xiangyun;LI Guoju(School of Public Health,Shandong Second Medical University,Weifang 261000,China)

机构地区：[1]山东第二医科大学公共卫生学院,山东潍坊261000 [2]青岛大学附属妇女儿童医院出生缺陷综合防治中心

出　　处：《青岛大学学报（医学版）》2024年第5期689-692,共4页Journal of Qingdao University(Medical Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(81903335)。

摘　　要：目的了解我国围产儿死亡率的时空分布情况,并对全国围产儿死亡率进行预测。方法基于2021年我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)的围产儿死亡率和2011—2020年全国围产儿总死亡率数据,应用空间自相关分析围产儿死亡率的空间分布特征,并通过GM(1,1)模型对围产儿死亡率进行预测。结果全局空间自相关分析显示,2021年我国围产儿死亡率空间分布呈正向相关;局部空间自相关分析显示,西藏自治区聚集类型为高-高相关,湖南省为高-低聚集地区,山东、江苏、浙江、安徽省为低-低聚集区。GM(1,1)模型预测结果显示,2021—2025年全国围产儿死亡率分别为3.79‰、3.61‰、3.44‰、3.27‰、3.12‰。结论我国围产儿死亡率在空间分布上存在不均衡现象,在时间分布上整体呈下降趋势,应提高妇幼保健水平,缩小地区差异。Objective To investigate the spatial distribution of perinatal mortality rate in China,and to predict the perinatal mortality rate across the country.Methods Based on the perinatal mortality rates of 31 provinces,autonomous regions,and municipalities directly under the Central Government in 2021,and the data on total perinatal mortality rate in China in 2011—2020,the spatial autocorrelation analysis was used to investigate the spatial distribution characteristics of perinatal mortality rate,and the GM(1,1)model was used to predict perinatal mortality rate.Results The global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the spatial distribution of perinatal mortality rate in China in 2021 was positively correlated,and the local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that an aggregation type of high-high correlation in Tibet Autonomous Region,with Hunan Province as a high-low aggregation area and Shandong,Jiangsu,Zhejiang,and Anhui provinces as low-low aggregation areas.The prediction results of the GM(1,1)model showed that the perinatal mortality rates in 2021—2025 were 3.79‰,3.61‰,3.44‰,3.27‰,and 3.12‰,respectively.Conclusion The spatial distribution of perinatal mortality rate is uneven in China,and there is a downward trend in the temporal distribution.Therefore,it is necessary to improve the level of maternal and child health care and reduce regional differences.

关 键 词：围产期死亡率 空间分析 模型 理论 预测 

分 类 号：R195.3[医药卫生—卫生统计学]