同期双侧全膝关节置换术后14d输血预测模型的构建  

Establishment of a predictive model for blood transfusion within 14 d after simultaneous bilateral total knee arthroplasty

作　　者：李祥 卢晓 史琳[3] 徐奎帅 于腾波 张英泽 LI Xiang;LU Xiao;SHI Lin;XU Kuishuai;YU Tengbo;ZHANG Yingze(Department of Sports Medicine,The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University,Qingdao 266000,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛大学附属医院运动医学科,山东青岛266000 [2]青岛大学附属医院病理科 [3]青岛大学附属医院腹部超声科 [4]青岛市市立医院关节外科

出　　处：《青岛大学学报（医学版）》2024年第5期693-696,共4页Journal of Qingdao University(Medical Sciences)

基　　金：山东省重点研发计划(重大科技创新计划)(2021SFGC0502)。

摘　　要：目的建立预测同期双侧全膝关节置换术(SBTKA)术后14 d输血的列线图模型,为其临床早期防治和改善预后提供科学依据。方法收集2012年1月1日—2017年12月31日于我院行SBTKA的病人862例,其中非输血组539例,输血组323例。通过单变量分析和多因素logistic回归分析确定SBTKA术后14 d输血风险的独立危险因素,构建SBTKA术后14 d是否输血的列线图预测模型。结果SBTKA术后14 d是否输血的独立危险因素为年龄、血红蛋白(Hb)、体质量指数(BMI)和病程。以年龄、Hb、BMI和病程构建的预测模型的受试者工作特征曲线曲线下面积为0.652(95%CI=0.612~0.691)。校准曲线和临床决策曲线分析结果显示,模型具有较好的预测价值。结论基于年龄、术前Hb、BMI和病程构建的SBTKA术后14 d输血列线图模型对及时识别输血高危人群有一定的指导意义。Objective To establish a nomogram model for predicting blood transfusion within 14 d after simultaneous bila-teral total knee arthroplasty(SBTKA),and to provide a scientific basis for early clinical prevention and improvement of prognosis.Methods A total of 862 patients who underwent SBTKA in our hospital from January 1,2012 to December 31,2017 were enrolled,among whom there were 539 patients in the non-transfusion group and 323 patients in the transfusion group.The univariate analysis and the multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to determine the independent risk factors for blood transfusion risk within 14 d after SBTKA,and these factors were used to establish a nomogram prediction model for blood transfusion within 14 d after SBTKA.Results Age,hemoglobin(Hb),body mass index(BMI),andcourse of the disease were independent risk factors for blood transfusion within 14 d after SBTKA.The predictive model established based on age,Hb,BMI,and course of the disease had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.652(95%CI=0.612-0.691).The calibration curve and the clinical decision curve showed that the model had a good predictive value.Conclusion The nomogram predictive model for blood transfusion within 14 d after SBTKA is established based on age,preoperative Hb,BMI,and course of the disease and has a certain guiding significance for timely identification of the population at a high risk of blood transfusion.

关 键 词：关节成形术 置换 膝 输血 列线图 

分 类 号：R687.42[医药卫生—骨科学] R457.1[医药卫生—外科学]