警察盘查时空模式对街面盗窃的因果效应——以ZG市CBD为例  

Causal effect of spatiotemporal patterns of police stops on street thefts:A case study of the central business district of ZG City

作　　者：龙锦颖 张春霞 宋广文 范卓颖 LONG Jinying;ZHANG Chunxia;SONG Guangwen;FAN Zhuoying(Center of GeoInformatics for Public Security,School of Geography and Remote Sensing,Guangzhou University,Guangzhou 510006,China;College of Tourism Business,Guangzhou Panyu Polytechnic,Guangzhou 511483,China)

机构地区：[1]广州大学地理科学与遥感学院公共安全地理信息分析中心,广州510006 [2]广州番禺职业技术学院旅游商务学院,广州511483

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2024年第11期2284-2297,共14页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42171218,42071184);广东省创新平台项目(2022WTSCX250);广东省哲学社会科学规划项目(GD22CSH07)。

摘　　要：警察盘查对犯罪时空分布有着重要的影响,但现有研究对警察盘查与犯罪之间的内生性问题讨论不足,亦未对大城市中央商务区警察盘查的时空模式及犯罪防控效益进行深入探讨。因此,论文以位于中国南方大城市ZG市HT区中央商务区派出所为例,利用精细化的警察盘查与街面盗窃时空大数据,对盘查与街面盗窃的时空模式特征进行分析,并运用份额移动法构建工具变量精确衡量警察盘查对街面盗窃的因果效应。研究发现:①中央商务区内警察盘查呈现出较为明显的热点集聚趋势,其时空模式主要表现为持续热点、连续增强热点、历史热点、新增热点与分散热点,不同热点类型中警察盘查与街面盗窃的时空互动关系存在差异;②内生性问题会影响警察盘查对犯罪的因果效应评估,考虑工具变量后,发现中央商务区警察盘查对街面盗窃的发生起到显著的威慑作用,上周的警察盘查量每增加一个标准单位,本周的街面盗窃案件量将下降约0.243起。论文聚焦警察日常活动与犯罪行为时空关系的定量研究,相关结论可为精细化规划警察盘查时间、提升盘查效率、合理配置警力资源提供科学依据。As a formal supervisory force,police stops have a significant impact on the spatiotemporal distribution of crimes.However,existing research lacks sufficient discussion on the endogeneity issues between police stops and crimes,as well as an in-depth exploration of the spatiotemporal patterns and preventive effects of police stops in the central business districts(CBDs)of large cities.Therefore,this study took the CBD police station located in the core area of the CBD of ZG City,a big city in southern China,as an example,and used exact spatiotemporal big data of police stops and street thefts to analyze their spatiotemporal pattern characteristics.Then we applied the share-shift method to construct the Bartik's instrumental variable to analyze the causal effect of police stops on street thefts.This study found that:1)Police stops in the CBD showed an obvious hotspot clustering trend,and their spatiotemporal coverage mainly included sustained hotspots,continuously enhancing hotspots,historical hotspots,new hotspots,and dispersed hotspots,with varying spatiotemporal relationships between police stops and street thefts for different hotspot types.2)Endogeneity issues affect the assessment of the causal effect of police stops on crimes.After considering instrumental variables,we found that police stops in the CBD had a significant deterrent effect on the occurrence of street thefts,and for every one standard unit increase in the number of police stops in the previous week,the number of street thefts in the current week will drop by about 0.243 cases.This research focused on the quantitative study of the spatiotemporal relationship between daily police activities and criminal behaviors.The findings can serve as a scientific basis for refining the planning of police stops,enhancing patrol efficiency,and realizing the rational allocation of police resources.

关 键 词：警察盘查 街面盗窃 因果效应 工具变量 时空模式 中央商务区 

分 类 号：D917[政治法律—法学] D631.2