极值潮位与增水持续时间的联合概率分析  

Joint probability analysis of extreme tide level and storm surge duration

作　　者：赵冠华 董胜[1] ZHAO Guanhua;DONG Sheng(College of Engineering,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学工程学院,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《海洋湖沼通报（中英文）》2024年第5期1-8,共8页Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology

基　　金：山东省重点研发计划项目(2021ZLGX04);国家自然科学基金委员会-山东省人民政府联合基金项目(U1706226);国家自然科学基金项目(51779236)。

摘　　要：台风造成的灾害是海洋结构物建设中需要考虑的重要因素之一。本文对东营市孤东采油厂附近海域1960年至2019年期间发生的31场台风进行模拟,抽取工程地点潮位序列,采用广义极值分布对极值潮位和增水的持续时间进行边缘分布拟合,采用Gumbel-Hougarrd copula函数构建了二者的联合分布。考虑风暴潮出现频次的影响,采用泊松复合极值分布开展概率分析。结果表明由此估计的联合重现期可以较好地反映风暴潮致灾程度,为沿海的防灾减灾和海洋结构物设计提供参考依据。Typhoon disaster is one of the most important factors that should be considered in the construction of marine structures.In present study,31 typhoons affecting the coastal areas of Gudong oil production plant in Dongying City during 1960 and 2019 were simulated and the tide levels near the project site were calculated.The generalized extreme value(GEV)distribution model was applied to fit the marginal distributions of both extreme tide level and storm surge duration.The dependence structure of these two environmental conditions was described by a Gumbel-Hougarrd copula function.Considering the effect of the typhoon frequency on the design values,the Poisson compound extreme value distribution was used to perform the statistical analysis.The results indicate that the joint return period estimated by the proposed model acts as a reasonable representation of the storm surge disaster grade,and thus provides essential information for coastal disaster prevention and mitigation and marine structure design.

关 键 词：台风 极值潮位 增水持续时间 联合概率 重现期 

分 类 号：P753[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]