天津市海洋资源环境承载能力监测预警评价技术方法研究  

Study on the evaluation method of early-warning of the marine resourcesand environmental carrying capacity of Tianjin maritime space

作　　者：马玉艳 屠建波[1,2] 石海明 孙欢[1,2] 薄文杰 姜旭娟 郑美玲 谭晓璇[3] MA Yuyan;TU Jianbo;SHI Haiming;SUN Huan;BO Wenjie;JIANG Xujuan;ZHENG Meiling;TAN Xiaoxuan(Tianjin Marine Environment Monitoring Central Station,Tianjin 300457,China;Tianjin Marine Environment Monitoring and Forecast Center,Tianjin 300457,China;Oceanic Consulting Center of Ministry of Natural Resources,Beijing 100071,China)

机构地区：[1]国家海洋局天津海洋环境监测中心站,天津300457 [2]天津市海洋环境监测预报中心,天津300457 [3]自然资源部海洋咨询中心,北京100071

出　　处：《海洋湖沼通报（中英文）》2024年第5期121-130,共10页Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology

基　　金：天津市规划和自然资源局2019年规划和自然资源系统科研项目(1)(ML2019-HP-F161);天津重点研发计划科技支撑重点项目(19YFZCSN01130)。

摘　　要：本文结合国内外研究进展和国家发改委下发的《资源环境承载能力监测预警技术方法(试行)》,构建了基于基础评价—专项评价—过程评价的天津市海洋资源环境承载能力监测预警评价指标体系,其中基础评价对所辖海域进行全覆盖评价,主要包括海洋空间资源、海洋渔业资源、海洋生态环境三项基础要素,共9个指标;专项评价依据主体功能区划对优化开发区和禁止开发区进行评价,共4个指标;过程评价通过评价主要海洋资源消耗、生态环境质量变化、生态灾害风险变化,表征区域海洋资源环境承受的人为活动压力变化趋势,共5个指标;并分别采用短板效应集成评价法和层次分析综合评价法开展天津市海洋资源环境能力监测预警评价。结果表明,采用层次分析综合评价法得出的评价结果更符合天津市海洋资源环境承载能力实际状况,即2011—2019年天津市海洋资源环境承载能力均处于临界超载状态,海洋资源环境耗损均为趋缓型,由此得出2011—2019年天津市海洋资源环境承载能力均处于轻警,即蓝色预警等级,并根据承载状况结果提出了相应的对策措施。上述研究成果可为进一步完善国家海洋资源环境承载能力监测预警工作提供技术支撑。In this paper the index system,including basic evaluation,specific evaluation and process evaluation of early-warning of the marine resources and environmental carrying capacity of Tianjin maritime space was constructed.The study had referred to the relevant research progress domestically and internationally,and the Technical Manual of Resources and Environment Carrying Capacity Monitoring and Early-Warning(Trial)issued by the National Development and Reform Commission of the People's Republic of China had also been referenced.The basic evaluation was used to conduct an overall evaluation for jurisdictional maritime area and was measured by nine indicators including three categories:marine space resources,marine fishery resources and marine ecological environment.The specific evaluation included four indicators and was used to conduct specific evaluations for different major functional zones,such as optimized development zones and prohibited development zones.The process evaluation included five indicators and divided into three categories:the consumption of marine resources,the changes of ecological environment,and the changes of ecological disaster risk.The process evaluation was often used to indicate the variation tendency of the pressure which could vary with the human activities and was shouldered by marine environmental resource.Buckets effec and the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)comprehensive evaluation were used in this study respectively.The results showed that the evaluation results obtained by the AHP comprehensive evaluation were more in line with the actual situations of Tianjin.The marine resources and environmental carrying capacity of jurisdictional maritime area had been overloaded from 2011 to 2019.The evaluation results of marine resources and environment consumption was slowing down,and the early-warning levels of Tianjin were in the slight warning(blue)state.The corresponding measures were put forward according to the evaluation results.The above results could technically help us to carry o

关 键 词：海洋资源环境承载能力 预警 指标体系 评价方法 天津海域 

分 类 号：X82[环境科学与工程—环境工程] P76[天文地球—海洋科学]