人力资本结构高级化与中等收入群体扩大——来自机器学习的经验证据  

The Optimization of Human Capital Structure and the Expansion of Middle-income Group:Empirical Evidence from Machine Learning

作　　者：李飚 孟大虎[2] 杨斯凯 LI Biao;MENG Dahu;YANG Sikai

机构地区：[1]郑州大学商学院,郑州450001 [2]《北京师范大学学报(社会科学版)》编辑部,北京100875 [3]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,西安710061

出　　处：《上海商学院学报》2024年第5期48-71,共24页Business Economic Review

基　　金：河南省高等学校哲学社会科学创新人才支持计划(2025-CXRC-03)。

摘　　要：人力资本结构高级化是扩大中等收入群体的重要路径。本研究利用CFPS(2016—2020)数据,使用机器学习法以个人层面的工资性收入为标准测算了全国和省级层面的中等收入群体比例,实证分析了人力资本结构高级化对中等收入群体比重变化的影响。文章得到如下主要结论,首先,无论从全国层面还是省级层面上看,2015—2019年我国低收入群体占比总体上保持下降趋势,中等收入群体占比则基本呈上升趋势。但是,我国尚未形成“橄榄型”收入分配格局,中等收入群体占比仍然偏低。其次,实证结果表明,人力资本结构高级化水平对中等收入群体比重的增长具有显著的正效应,即人力资本结构高级化水平每增加1个单位,中等收入群体比重将上升2.9%;人力资本结构高级化主要通过降低劳动力错配程度、强化城市集聚和增加劳动力市场厚度等渠道实现中等收入群体扩大。在进行内生性和稳健性检验后,该结论依然稳健。再次,人力资本结构高级化水平对中部和西部地区具有显著的正向影响且对中部地区的影响最大。人力资本的提升对中等收入群体产生的增收效应对于不同分位点处的中等收入群体收入的影响存在差异,呈现“倒U型”特征。未来,我国应重视提升人力资本结构高级化水平,并依据地区差异制定提升人力资本结构高级化的政策,以切实推动中等收入群体规模的扩大。The optimization of human capital structure is an important path to expanding the middle-income group.Using CFPS(2016-2020)data and machine learning methods,this study calculates the proportion of the middle-income group at national and provincial levels based on individual-level wage income,and empirically analyzes the impact of the optimization of human capital structure on the change in the proportion of the middle-income group.The main conclusions are as follows.First,the proportion of the low-income group in China,whether at the national or provincial level,generally showed a downward trend from 2015 to 2019,while the proportion of the middle-income group basically showed an upward trend.However,China has not yet formed an“olive-shaped”income distribution pattern,and the proportion of the middle-income group is still relatively low.Second,the empirical results show that the advanced human capital structure has a significant positive effect on the growth of the proportion of the middle-income group;that is to say,for every 1 unit increase in the optimization of human capital structure,the proportion of the middle-income group will increase by 2.9%.After conducting endogeneity and robustness tests,this conclusion remains steady.Third,the optimization of human capital structure has a significant positive impact on the central and western regions,and the impact on the central region is the greatest.The level of optimization of human capital structure mainly expands the middle-income group by reducing the degree of labor misallocation,strengthening urban agglomeration,and increasing the thickness of the labor market.The effect of the improvement of human capital on the income increase of the middle-income group has differences in the impact on the income of the middleincome group at different quantiles,showing an“inverted U-shaped”feature.In the future,China should attach importance to improving the level of optimization of human capital structure and formulate corresponding policies according to regional

关 键 词：中等收入群体 人力资本结构高级化 工资性收入 机器学习法 

分 类 号：F124.7[经济管理—世界经济] F249.2