青海省育龄妇女“三孩”生育意愿影响因素及作用机制  

Influencing Factors and Mechanisms of“Three-child”Fertility Intentions among Women of Childbearing Age in Qinghai Province

作　　者：胡西武 丁茹 杨进华 Hu Xi-wu;Ding Ru;Yang Jin-hua

机构地区：[1]青海民族大学,青海西宁810007 [2]天津大学—青海民族大学双碳研究院,青海西宁810007 [3]西宁市第一人民医院,青海西宁810099

出　　处：《青海民族大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第4期65-74,共10页Journal of Qinghai Minzu University：Social Sciences

基　　金：青海省“揭榜挂帅”重大社科项目“现代化新青海建设背景下走好生态保护和民生改善双赢之路研究”(项目编号:JB2301)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：“三孩”生育意愿是在满足基本生育需求和生育效用之上的更高层次的生育意愿,是影响“三孩”政策落地的重要因素。本文基于青海省8个州市1143份调查问卷,运用logistic回归模型和SHAP值算法进行实证分析,探讨青海省育龄妇女“三孩”生育意愿的影响因素及作用机制。结果表明:第一,汉族育龄妇女“三孩”生育意愿显著低于其他少数民族育龄妇女(OR值为0.079),家庭年收入在10万元以上的育龄妇女“三孩”生育意愿显著低于家庭年收入在10万元以下的育龄妇女(OR值为0.605),已育孩子只有男孩和只有女孩的育龄妇女三孩意愿显著低于既有男孩也有女孩的育龄妇女(OR值分别为0.320、0.283);第二,经济收入对民族属性、海拔、已育孩子性别与“三孩”生育意愿关系的调节效应显著;第三,年龄、文化程度、居住地、社会保障、孩子照看方式对青海省育龄妇女“三孩”的生育意愿有显著影响,但影响程度呈现新的特点;第四,民族、文化程度和已育孩子性别的SHAP均值最大,是主要影响因素。本文的研究结论可以为青海省人口的高质量发展提供参考依据。The intention to have a third child reflects a higher level of reproductive desire that goes beyond basic needs,and it plays a crucial role in the implementation of the“three-child”policy.This study employs empirical analysis via the logistic regression model and SHAP value algorithm based on 1,143 survey responses from eight cities and prefectures in Qinghai Province to explore the influencing factors and mechanisms of childbearing-age women’s intention to have a third child.The results show that:(1)Han women have significantly lower intentions to have a third child compared to women from other ethnic minorities(with an odds ratio[OR]value of 0.079).Women with an annual household income above 100,000 yuan have significantly lower intentions than those below this amount(OR value of 0.605).Moreover,women with only boys or only girls are less likely to have a third child compared to those with both boys and girls(OR values of 0.320 and 0.283,respectively).(2)Economic income significantly moderates the relationship between the intention to have a third child with ethnic attributes,altitude,and the gender of existing children.(3)Factors such as age,education level,residence,social security,and childcare methods significantly affect the intention to have a third child in new ways.(4)The average SHAP values for ethnicity,education level,and the gender of existing children are the highest,making them the primary influencing factors.The conclusions of this study can provide a reference for the high-quality development of the population in Qinghai Province.

关 键 词：“三孩”人口政策 生育意愿 人口现代化 影响因素 SHAP值算法 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学] F124.7