甘肃省生猪生产现状及生猪价格波动成因分析  

Current Situation of Pig Production and Cause Analysis of Live Pig Price Fluctuation in Gansu Province

作　　者：马娅娅 杜妮妮 王菊霞 张丽霞 袁鹏祥 王宝 MA Yaya;DU Nini;WANG Juxia;ZHANG Lixia;YUAN Pengxiang;WANG Bao(Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of Anding District,Dingxi,Gansu 743000,China)

机构地区：[1]定西市安定区畜牧兽医局,甘肃定西743000

出　　处：《畜牧兽医杂志》2024年第6期83-88,96,共7页Journal of Animal Science and Veterinary Medicine

基　　金：2023年甘肃省陇原青年创新创业人才项目(2023-LQGR41);2022年定西市科技人才支持专项项目(DX2022BR07)。

摘　　要：基于甘肃省统计官网数据和畜牧业综合信息平台面板数据,深入分析了甘肃省历年生猪存栏、出栏变化情况,生猪价格波动与仔猪、猪肉、饲料等价格波动相互之间的线性关系。发现甘肃省生猪存栏、出栏数量稳中有增,仔猪价格波动幅度最大,猪肉价格波动对生猪价格波动的影响最为显著,猪肉价格波动率每提高1%,生猪价格波动率会提高0.08%。基于上述结论,提出了相应的策略与建议。Based on the data of Gansu provincial statistics official website and the panel data of animal husbandry comprehensive information platform,changes in pig inventory and marketing,the linear relationship between pig price fluctuation and piglet,pork and feed price fluctuation in Gansu province over the years were deeply analyzed.It is found that pig inventory and marketing in Gansu province has steadily increased,piglet price fluctuation is the largest,pork price fluctuation has the most significant impact on pig price fluctuation,and every 1%increase in pork price volatility results in a 0.08%increase in pig price volatility.Countermeasures and suggestions are there by put forward.

关 键 词：生产现状 市场行情 生猪 线性分析 对策建议 

分 类 号：S828.9[农业科学—畜牧学]