Improving global weather and ocean wave forecast with large artificial intelligence models  

作　　者：Fenghua LING Lin OUYANG Boufeniza Redouane LARBI Jing-Jia LUO Tao HAN Xiaohui ZHONG Lei BAI 

机构地区：[1]Institute for Climate and Application Research(ICAR)/CIC-FEMD/KLME/ILCEC,School of Future Technology,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China [2]Ganzhou Meteorological Bureau,Ganzhou 341000,China [3]Shanghai AI Laboratory,Shanghai 200232,China [4]The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology,Hong Kong 999077,China [5]Artificial Intelligence Innovation and Incubation Institute of Fudan University,Shanghai 201203,China

出　　处：《Science China Earth Sciences》2024年第12期3641-3654,共14页中国科学（地球科学英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2020YFA0608000);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42030605)。

摘　　要：The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence technologies,particularly in recent years,has led to the emergence of several large parameter artificial intelligence weather forecast models.These models represent a significant breakthrough,overcoming the limitations of traditional numerical weather prediction models and indicating the emergence of profound potential tools for atmosphere-ocean forecasts.This study explores the evolution of these advanced artificial intelligence forecast models,and based on the identified commonalities,proposes the“Three Large Rules”for large weather forecast models:a large number of parameters,a large number of predictands,and large potential applications.We discuss the capacity of artificial intelligence to revolutionize numerical weather prediction,briefly outlining the underlying reasons for the significant improvement in weather forecasting.While acknowledging the high accuracy,computational efficiency,and ease of deployment of large artificial intelligence forecast models,we also emphasize the irreplaceable values of traditional numerical forecasts and explore the challenges in the future development of large-scale artificial intelligence atmosphere-ocean forecast models.We believe that the optimal future of atmosphere-ocean weather forecast lies in achieving a seamless integration of artificial intelligence and traditional numerical models.Such a synthesis is anticipated to offer a more advanced and reliable approach for improved atmosphere-ocean forecasts.Finally,we illustrate how forecasters can leverage the large weather forecast models through an example by building an artificial intelligence model for global ocean wave forecast.

关 键 词：Numerical weather prediction Deep learning Large AI weather forecast models Global ocean wave forecast 

分 类 号：P731.33[天文地球—海洋科学]