基于事故树与直觉模糊集的10 kV配电网互联安全状态模糊综合评价模型  

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model for Safety State of 10 kV Distribution Network Interconnection Based on Fault Tree and Intuitionistic Fuzzy Set

作　　者：徐颖 XU Ying(Wuhan Power Supply Company of State Grid Hubei Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430061,China)

机构地区：[1]国网湖北省电力有限公司武汉供电公司,湖北武汉430061

出　　处：《微型电脑应用》2024年第11期226-229,233,共5页Microcomputer Applications

摘　　要：由于自然故障或网络攻击导致的信息失效事件频发,10 kV配电网互联安全状态存在评价结果偏差较大的问题,对此,研究基于事故树与直觉模糊集的10 kV配电网互联安全状态模糊综合评价模型。通过直觉模糊集,处理10 kV配电网基础数据,建立事件上下位关系类型,定义配电网中不确定性的运行状态。分析配电网运行流程,结合供电能力和运行水平,选择综合性评价指标,设置安全评价规则,构建模糊评价指标体系。基于事故树计算评价指标重要度,按照基本事件的安全影响程度,构建配电网互联安全状态评价模型。实验结果表明,在不同类型供电分区10 kV配电网可靠性评估中,当应用所提模型后,能够真实反映O、P、Q 3个分区的可靠性隶属度,与配电网的真实运行情况相符合,能够真实地反映配电网运行情况,当发生问题时能够及时跟踪,缓解信息失效问题。Information failure events caused by natural faults or network attacks occur frequently,and there is a problem of large deviation in the evaluation results of 10 kV distribution network interconnection safety state.Therefore,a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of 10 kV distribution network interconnection safety state based on fault tree and intuitionistic fuzzy set is studied.Based on intuitionistic fuzzy sets,the basic data of 10 kV distribution network is processed,the type of event hierarchy is established,and the uncertain operation state of distribution network is defined.This paper analyzes the operation process of distribution network,selects comprehensive evaluation indicators,sets safety evaluation rules,and builds a fuzzy evaluation index system based on the power supply capacity and operation level.Based on the importance degree of the evaluation index calculated by the fault tree,and according to the safety impact degree of the basic events,the distribution network interconnection safety state evaluation model is constructed.The experimental results show that,in the reliability evaluation of 10 kV distribution network in different types of power supply zones,when the proposed model is applied,the reliability membership degree of O,P and Q zones can be truly reflected,which is consistent with the actual operation conditions of the distribution network,and can truly reflect the operation conditions of the distribution network.When problems occur,timely tracking can be achieved to alleviate the problem of information failure.

关 键 词：事故树 直觉模糊集 10 kV配电网 安全状态 可靠性隶属度 

分 类 号：TP39[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]