2022—2023年北京市某郊区季节性流感实际流行水平的估算  

Estimation of the actual epidemic level of seasonal influenza in a Beijing suburb,2022-2023

作　　者：王雪琪 马仲慧 赵耀 魏柯雯 杨鹏[2] 于海柱[1] 王小莉[2] 李丽丽[1] WANG Xueqi;MA Zhonghui;ZHAO Yao;WEI Kewen;YANG Peng;YU Haizhu;WANG Xiaoli;LI Lili(Fangshan District Center for Disease Prevention and Control,Beijing 102401,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]北京市房山区疾病预防控制中心,102401 [2]北京市疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《首都公共卫生》2024年第4期232-236,共5页Capital Journal of Public Health

基　　金：首都卫生发展科研专项(编号:首发2022-1G-3014)。

摘　　要：目的估算北京市某郊区2022—2023年流感实际感染水平、发病水平和就诊水平,为制定下一步流感防控策略提供依据。方法采用以蒙特卡罗思想为基础编制的乘法模型,根据该郊区流感病例监测系统中的流感样病例数、流感病原学监测结果,结合流感样病例显性感染比例、分年龄组的就诊率等参数按年龄组估算该郊区2023年流感实际感染水平、发病水平和就诊水平。结果经估算北京市某郊区2022—2023年实际有407128例(90%CI:320968~536350)流感感染病例,实际感染率为31.17%。其中270935例(90%CI:222041~345537)发病,232633例(90%CI:182689~304063)就诊。1例实验室确诊流感病例实际代表983.40例(90%CI:775.29~1295.53)感染病例。5~<15岁年龄组流感实际感染率、发病率、就诊率均为最高。结论2022—2023年北京市某郊区流感经济负担较重,青少年儿童感染风险最高。提示应做好流感疫苗的宣传、培养青少年儿童的防病意识,减少学校聚集性疫情的发生。Objective To estimate the actual level of seasonal influenza infection,incidence and outpatient visits during 2022 to 2023 in a suburb of Beijing,so as to provide basis for formulating further prevention and control strategies of seasonal influenza.Methods The multiplier model based on Monte Carlo approach was used to estimate the levels of actual infection,incidence and outpatient visits of seasonal influenza by age groups during 2022-2023 in this suburb,according to the number of influenza-like illness(ILI)cases in the influenza surveillance system,and the influenza etiological surveillance result,combined with the symptomatic infection proportion of ILI cases,the rate of consultation by age groups and other parameters.Results During 2022 to 2023,it is estimated that 407128(90%CI:320968-536350)influenza infection cases were actually reported in the suburb of Beijing,and the estimated infection rate was 31.17%.A total of 270935(90%CI:222041-345537)influenza cases were symptomatic and 232633(90%CI:182689-304063)visited outpatients.One laboratory-confirmed case actually represented 983.40(90%CI:775.29-1295.53)cases of real infection.The 5-<15 years group had the highest rate in actual influenza virus infection,incidence and outpatient visit.Conclusions From 2022 to 2023,the economic burden of influenza was heavy in a suburb of Beijing,and the risk of infection was highest in young children.This suggested the necessarity of strengthening education of influenza vaccination and improving awareness of health protection among adolescents and children,thus to reduce the occurrence of clusters of outbreaks in schools.

关 键 词：季节性流感 流行水平 乘法模型 

分 类 号：R511.7[医药卫生—内科学]