防范化解债务风险目标能否提高地方政府投资效率——基于政府工作报告的准自然实验分析  

Can theTarget of Preventing and Resolving Debt Risks Improve the Efficiency of Local Government Investment:A Quasi-natural Experimental Analysis Based on Government Work Reports

作　　者：宋文娟 Song Wenjuan

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学人文与社会科学学院

出　　处：《宏观经济研究》2024年第10期57-71,117,共16页Macroeconomics

摘　　要：政府投资行为是推动中国经济发展的重要动力机制之一,如何扩大有效的投资对经济可持续发展至关重要。本文采用2013—2020年中国290个地级市的面板数据,探讨了防范化解债务风险目标对提高地方政府投资效率的影响。基准回归结果表明,防范化解债务风险的目标约束,促使地方政府采取了腾笼和培优措施,有效提高了地方政府投资效率。具体表现为降低政府付费项目数量占比以减少政府财政支出责任,注重投资项目质量把关以减少项目退库。异质性分析表明,腾笼效应在经济发展水平较高的东部地级市更显著,培优效应在西部地级市更显著;防范化解债务风险目标约束显著提高了低财政收入地区的投资效率。机制分析发现,项目规模增大和基础设施投资会增强防范化解债务风险目标对提高投资效率的正向影响。本文为提高地方政府投资效率提供了相关的经验证据,也为防范化解债务风险提供了进一步完善的方向。Government investment behavior is one of the important driving mechanisms to promote China's economic development,and how to expand effective investment is crucial for sustainable economic development. Using panel data from 290 prefecture-level cities in China from 2013 to 2020, thisarticle explores the impact of the target of preventingand resolving debt risks on improving the investmentefficiency of local governments. Benchmark regressionresults show that the target constraint of preventingand resolving debt risks has prompted localgovernments to take measures to free up cages andcultivate excellence, effectively improving localgovernment investment efficiency. Specifically , it ismanifested in reducing the number of governmentpaidprojects to reduce the government' s financialexpenditure responsibility and focusing on the qualitycontrol of investment projects to reduce the withdrawalof projects. Heterogeneity analysis showsthat the effect of freeing the cage is more significantin the eastern prefecture -level cities with highereconomic development level, and the effect of cultivatingexcellence is more significant in the westernprefecture-level cities;and the target constraint ofpreventing and resolving the debt risk significantlyimproves the investment efficiency in the regionswith low financial income. Mechanism analysis findsthat increased project size and infrastructure investmentenhance the positive impact of the debt risk prevention and resolution target on improving investmentefficiency. This article provides relevant empiricalevidence for improving the investment efficiencyof local governments, and provides a direction forfurther improvement in preventing and resolving debtrisks.

关 键 词：地方政府投资效率 债务风险 目标约束 双重差分 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学] F124