老年驾驶员事故严重程度影响因素时间不稳定性分析  

Temporal instability analysis of factors affecting injury severities of elderly drivers

作　　者：潘义勇[1] 吴静婷 缪炫烨 PAN Yi-yong;WU Jing-ting;Miao Xuan-ye(College of Automobile and Traffic Engineering,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学汽车与交通工程学院,南京210037

出　　处：《吉林大学学报（工学版）》2024年第10期2819-2826,共8页Journal of Jilin University:Engineering and Technology Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51508280)。

摘　　要：为探究时间不稳定性对事故伤害严重程度的影响,本文构建基于均值和方差异质性的随机参数Logit模型对老年驾驶员事故伤害严重程度进行异质性分析。采用2015~2017年老年人交通事故数据,从老年人特性、车辆特性、道路特性、道路环境特性、建成环境特性这5个方面选取19个影响因素,利用平均边际效应捕捉各因素对事故伤害严重程度的影响变化,通过对数似然比检验事故伤害严重程度影响因素的整体和局部时间不稳定性。结果表明:老年驾驶员事故严重程度影响因素存在显著的时间不稳定性,碰撞后逃逸、事故发生在农村、道路表面环境为干燥3个因素对事故伤害严重程度的影响随年份正负变化,建成环境特性中事故发生在商业区对重伤事故伤害严重程度的影响随年份正负变化;老年驾驶员事故严重程度影响因素异质性存在时间不稳定性,随机参数和年份相关,其均值和方差的影响因素在不同年份中存在显著差异。In order to explore the influence of temporal instability on crash injury severities,a random parameter approach with heterogeneity in means and variances was constructed to analyze the heterogeneity of elderly driver injury severities.The 2015 to 2017 traffic crash data in a state of the United States was used for the analysis.19 influencing factors were selected based on the characteristics of elderly,vehicle,road,road environment,and built environment.The average marginal effect was used to reflect the effect of each factor on the crash injury severities.The log likelihood ratio was used to test the global and local temporal instability of the influencing factors of crash injury severities.The results show that there is significant temporal instability in the influencing factors of elderly driver injury severities.The influence of three factors on the injury severities,namely,escape after collision,rural area and dry road surface environment,changes positively and negatively with years.In the built environment characteristics,the influence of crash occurring in commercial district on the serious injury severities changes positively and negatively with years.There is temporal instability in the heterogeneity of influencing factors of elderly driver injury severities.The random parameters are related to years and the influencing factors of their mean and variance are significantly different in years.

关 键 词：交通工程 事故严重程度 均值和方差异质性的随机参数Logit 老年驾驶员 时间不稳定性 

分 类 号：U491.31[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]