走向共同富裕:中国“扩中”量化效果及影响因素研究  

Towards Common Prosperity:A Research on Quantitative Effect and Influencing Factors of Expanding Middle-income Groups

作　　者：孙伯驰 SUN Bochi(School of Economics,Tianjin Normal University,Tianjin 300387,China)

机构地区：[1]天津师范大学经济学院,天津300387

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2024年第12期112-125,共14页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“新发展阶段中等收入群体规模的统计测度与扩大策略研究”(21CTJ025)。

摘　　要：不断扩大中等收入群体既是适应新发展阶段的必然之举,也是共同富裕取得更加明显的实质性进展的具体表现。基于CFPS调查数据所覆盖的全国及各地区不同群体比重变化趋势的分析,利用分布动态学模型构建了扩大中等收入群体量化效果指标,并构造“条件Markov模型”进一步考察了“扩中”量化效果的影响因素。研究显示:第一,样本调查期内,全国及各地区中等收入群体的比重不断提升,但中低收入群体进入中等收入群体的概率较低,阶层固化程度较为严重;第二,以绝对扩中指数和相对扩中指数衡量的“扩中”量化效果向好,且呈现“量高质低”和“量稳质升”的特征;第三,提升人力资本水平、增强社会关系、推进互联网的普及、加快户籍制度改革、降低家庭负担、扩大失业保险覆盖范围、提高职业地位、增加家庭的工资性、财产性和转移性收入是扩大中等收入群体的重要举措。鉴于此,扩大中等收入群体应着眼于多途径促进居民增收,降低阶层的固化程度,要兼顾“提低”和“稳中”,追求“量质齐升”。Expanding middle-income groups is not only an inevitable movement to adapt to the new development stage,but also a concrete manifestation of achieving the more notable and substantial progress in common prosperity.According to the theory of distribution dynamics,this paper constructs a quantitative effect analysis framework of“Expanding the Middle”.Based on the analysis about the changing trend of the proportion of different groups in each regions covered by CFPS survey data,the measurement on the quantitative effect of expanding middle-income groups using the distribution dynamics model,and the further investigating the influencing factors of“Expanding the Middle”through the conditional Markov model.The research results indicate that:Firstly,During the sample survey period,the proportion of middle-income groups in each region has been increasing,but the probability of low-income groups entering the middle-income group is low,and the degree of class solidification is more serious.Secondly,“Expanding the Middle”quantitative effect measured by absolute and relative expansion index is good,and presents the characteristics of“high quantity and low quality”and“quantity stable and quality rise”.Thirdly,The main way to expand middle-income groups is to upgrade the level of human capital,strengthen social relationships,promote the popularization of the Internet,accelerate the reform of the household registration system,lighten the burden of family,expand the coverage of unemployment insurance,improve professional status and increase the wage,property and transfer income.The academic contributions of this paper include three main aspects.First,the whole society is divided into low-income groups,potential middle-income groups,middle-income groups and high-income groups,which fully reflects the new journey of Chinese-style modernization from“comprehensive well-off”to“common prosperity”.Second,the research on the quantitative effect of“Expanding the Middle”not only measures the number of low-i

关 键 词：共同富裕 中等收入群体 绝对扩中指数 相对扩中指数 条件Markov模型 

分 类 号：F124.7[经济管理—世界经济]