环境治理的生育潜力释放效应——来自中国地级市的证据  

The Fertility Potential-Releasing Effects of Environmental Governance——Evidence from Prefecture-Level Cities in China

作　　者：杜晓静 王振杰[2] 吕风光 DU Xiaojing;WANG Zhenjie;LYU Fengguang(School of Humanities and Social Science,Xi′an Jiaotong University,Xi′an 710049,China;Institute of Population Research,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学人文社会科学学院,陕西西安710049 [2]北京大学人口研究所,北京100871

出　　处：《人口与发展》2024年第6期2-12,共11页Population and Development

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“低生育率背景下人口迁移对育龄人群生育行为的影响研究”(20BRK020);“健康中国”揭榜攻关项目“基于人工智能的人口发展战略研究”(JKZGJBGG2320)。

摘　　要：研究将宏观视角纳入贝克尔的生育“数量-质量”理论模型,创新性提出环境因素条件下的家庭预算约束方程,结合宏微观数据分析了环境治理的生育潜力释放效应及影响机制,结果表明:环境治理有助于释放育龄女性的生育潜力,这一结论在进行各种稳健性检验后依然显著;环境治理对育龄女性生育潜力的影响具有群体差异,相比于中低收入和出生于1980年之前的育龄女性,更有助于提高“高收入”和“80后”育龄女性的生育意愿。研究不仅提出了释放育龄女性生育潜力的新视角,还从理论模型和实证分析两方面论证了环境治理对生育潜力的释放作用。这一发现有助于缓解我国的低生育率问题,丰富环境治理的政策内涵,对“释放生育潜力”和“生态文明建设”政策具有一定启示。This article incorporates a macroscopic perspective into Becker′s fertility“quantity-quality”theoretical model and proposes the household budget constraint equation under environmental factors.Based on data from the national fertility survey conducted in 2017 and 279 prefecture-level cities in China,this paper preliminarily explores the effect of environmental governance on fertility potential and its influencing mechanism.The conclusion is that environmental governance helps unleash the fertility potential of reproductive-age women,which remains significant after various robustness tests.The impact of environmental governance on the fertility potential of reproductive-age women varies among different groups.It is more helpful in increasing the fertility willingness of“high-income”and“80s”reproductive-age women compared to those with low income and those born before 1980.This article not only proposes a new perspective on unleashing the fertility potential of reproductive-age women but also demon-strates the role of environmental governance in releasing fertility potential through theoretical models and empirical analysis.This finding contributes to alleviating China′s low fertility rate problem,enriching the policy connotation of environmental governance,and providing certain enlightenment for policies on“releasing fertility potential”and“ecological civilization construction”.

关 键 词：环境治理 生育潜力 生育潜力释放效应 生育“数量-质量”模型 

分 类 号：C923[社会学—人口学]