中国育龄人群个体、家庭及社会因素对不同阶段生育意愿的影响研究  

Study on the Influence of Individual,Family,and Social Factors on Fertility Intentions among the Reproductive-Age Population in China

作　　者：王茜 刘晨曦[1] 吴一波 高红霞[1] WANG Xi;LIU Chenxi;WU Yibo;GAO Hongxia(School of Medicine and Health Management,Tongji Medical College of Huazhong University of Science&Technology,Wuhan 430030,China;School of Public Health,Peking University,Beijing 10091,China)

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学同济医学院医药卫生管理学院,湖北武汉430030 [2]北京大学公共卫生学院,北京100191

出　　处：《人口与发展》2024年第6期27-40,共14页Population and Development

基　　金：教育部人文社科基金面上项目(21YJA630017);国家自然科学基金青年项目(72004066&71904053)。

摘　　要：基于中国居民心理与行为调查研究2022年数据,研究构建了广义有序Logistic模型,探索个体、家庭、社会多层因素对不同阶段(一孩、二孩、三孩)育龄人群生育意愿的影响。研究发现:(1)个人心理因素显著影响各个阶段育龄人群的生育意愿。其中,外向性、宜人性、认真性人格特征总体促进生育意愿提高,而开放性、神经质人格总体抑制生育意愿。(2)育龄人群更高的感知孤独感和更高的自我效能水平与更高的三孩生育意愿显著相关,而其感知社会支持水平仅与一孩、二孩生育意愿相关。结果提示,社会支持可以缓解育龄人群对于一孩、二孩的生育成本,但三孩更多由个体心理和信念相关因素决定。(3)除家庭社会经济状况外,良好的家庭沟通会显著促进育龄人群多孩(二孩、三孩)的生育意愿,而较高的家庭健康水平可能预示家庭多孩生育机会成本的上升,从而抑制其生育意愿。(4)在考虑个体和家庭因素后,社会层面的住房、医疗成本主要影响二孩和三孩生育意愿,对于一孩的生育意愿影响有限。研究结果提示,个体心理健康和家庭特征对各个阶段育龄人群生育意愿具有显著影响,在不同阶段,生育政策的干预重点应有所区别,对于还未生育一孩的人群应重点关注其心理和家庭相关特征因素,对于多孩生育人群应同时考虑社会环境带来的成本限制。Based on the 2022 data from the Psychology and Behavior Investigation of Chinese Residents,this study constructed a generalized ordered logistic model to explore the influence of individual,family,and social factors on fertility intentions among the reproductive-age population in different stages(first child,second child,and third child).The study found that:(1)individual psychological factors significantly affect the fertility intentions of the reproductive-age population in all stages.Among them,extraversion,agreeableness,and conscientiousness personality traits overall promote an increase in fertility intentions,while openness and neuroticism personality traits overall inhibit fertility intentions;(2)higher levels of perceived loneliness and self-efficacy among the reproductive-age population are significantly associated with higher fertility intentions for the third child,while their perceived level of social support is only related to the first and second child.The results suggest that social support can alleviate the fertility cost for the first and second child,but the third child is more determined by individual psychological and belief-related factors;(3)in addition to the family′s socio-economic status,good family communication can significantly promote the fertility intentions of the reproductive-age population for multiple children(second child,third child),while a higher level of family health may indicate a rise in the cost of multiple-child opportunities,thereby inhibiting their fertility intentions;(4)after considering individual and family factors,the social cost of housing and medical care mainly affects the fertility intentions of the second and third child,with limited impact on the fertility intentions of the first child.The study results suggest that individual psychological health and family characteristics have a significant impact on the fertility intentions of the reproductive-age population in different stages.The intervention focus of the fertility policy should be different at diffe

关 键 词：生育意愿 心理特征 家庭功能 个体-家庭-社会模型 广义有序Logistic回归模型 

分 类 号：C923[社会学—人口学]