受教育水平、初婚年龄与生育水平——基于适龄人口性别差异视角  

Education,First Marriage Age,and Fertility Level——Based on the Perspective of Gender Differences in the Eligible Population

作　　者：田珺 完颜含玥 TIAN Jun;WANYAN Hanyue(School of Economics and Business Administration,Heilongjiang University,Harbin 150080,China;Law School,Heilongjiang University,Harbin 150080,China)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江大学经济与工商管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150080 [2]黑龙江大学法学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《人口与发展》2024年第6期152-163,139,共13页Population and Development

基　　金：国家社科基金一般基金“中国社会科学研究的国际化及其影响力研究”(20AZD115);黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目“黑龙江省高学历人口流失视角下高校毕业生就业区域选择的机制与对策研究”(23JLC094)。

摘　　要：教育推动了社会经济的发展进步,但受教育水平对适龄人口婚育水平的影响仍然有待检验。研究使用2003—2017年CGSS数据进行实证分析,分别探讨了受教育水平对不同性别群体婚育决策的影响。结果表明,其一,现阶段我国适龄人口的受教育水平提高对结婚和生育行为均会产生抑制作用,且对男性抑制效果略大于女性;其二,地区经济发展弱化了婚育的教育负梯度关系,农村传统的婚姻制度和“传宗接代”观念受教育冲击作用得以弱化;其三,劳动力市场冲击导致教育-生育数量之间的梯度关系出现了由负转正的情况;其四,受教育水平的提升可通过初婚年龄的延迟影响生育水平,且男性的教育-婚育负梯度的效应强于女性。研究为我国大龄“剩男、剩女”现象和生育政策持续遇冷提供了多重分析视角。Education has driven socio-economic development and progress,yet the impact of education levels on marriage and fertility rates among the eligible population remains insufficiently examined.This study employs empirical analysis using data from the Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS)spanning 2003 to 2017 to investigate how education levels influence marriage and fertility decisions across different gender groups.The findings reveal that,first,the current increase in education levels among the eligible population in China suppresses both marriage and fertility behaviors,with a slightly stronger suppressive effect on males than females.Second,regional economic development mitigates the negative educational gradient relationship with marriage and fertility,weakening the impact of education on traditional rural marriage systems and the notion of“continuing the family line”.Third,labor market shocks have led to a reversal in the educational gradient relationship with fertility,changing from negative to positive.Fourth,rising education levels can delay the age of first marriage,thereby influencing fertility rates,with the negative educational gradient effect on marriage and fertility being stronger for males than females.This article provides multiple analytical perspectives on the phenomenon of“older unmarried men and women”and the ongoing lukewarm response to fertility policies in China.

关 键 词：适龄人口 受教育水平 初婚年龄 生育 

分 类 号：C912.68[经济管理]