中国式现代化进程中人口结构变动的影响与应对  

The Influence of Population Structure Changes in China’s Modernization and the Countermeasures

作　　者：刘厚莲 Liu Houlian

机构地区：[1]中国人口与发展研究中心

出　　处：《中共中央党校（国家行政学院）学报》2024年第5期129-139,共11页Journal of The Party School of The Central Committee of The C.P.C（Chinese Academy of Governance）

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“中国人力资本红利的形成机理与关键路径研究”(24ARK002)。

摘　　要：当前及未来一个时期,我国社会主义现代化建设将伴随日益突出的人口结构性矛盾,少子化进程加速发展,快速迈入重度老龄化阶段,劳动年龄人口不断减少和老化,成为高质量发展的重要基础条件。人口结构快速变动,对我国经济社会的影响存在“增强效应”,将深刻影响经济形态变迁、经济增长潜力,使经济活力下降风险增大,影响社会保障制度可持续性,加剧生育和健康养老服务供需矛盾,积累社会风险矛盾等。未来要深刻认识少子老龄化新国情,辩证看待人口结构变动蕴含的机遇和挑战,重构人口治理体系,把握老龄社会的科技创新、银发经济和老年人力资源开发等重要机遇,推动人口红利向人力资本红利转变,持续健全社会保障制度、健康养老服务体系、生育支持政策体系,以促进人口高质量发展支撑中国式现代化。At present and in the future,China's socialist modernization will be accompanied by increasingly prominent demographic structural contradictions,the process of low birth rate will accelerate,and it will quickly enter the stage of severe aging,the working-age population will continue to decrease and age,which is becoming an important basic condition for high-quality development.The rapid change of China's population structure has a"strengthening effect"on the economic and society development,which will profoundly affect the transformation of economic forms and the potential of economic growth,increase the risk of declining economic vitality,affect the sustainability of the social security system,intensify the contradiction between supply and demand of fertility and health care services,and accumulate social risk contradictions.In the future,we need to deeply understand the new national conditions of low birth rate and aging,dialectically view the opportunities and challenges contained in the changes of population structure,reconstruct the population governance system,grasp the important opportunities such as scientific and technological innovation,silver economy and elderly human resources development in the aging society,promote the transformation of demographic dividend to human capital dividend,and continuously improve the social security system,health care service system and fertility support policy system to promote high-quality population development and support Chinese modernization.

关 键 词：人口结构性矛盾 老龄化 少子化 人口治理 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]