深层贸易协定的第三方效应:“贸易转移”还是“贸易溢出”  

Third-party Effect of Deep Trade Agreements:“Trade Diversion”or“Trade Spillover”

作　　者：李潇 韩剑[1] Li Xiao;Han Jian(Business School,Nanjing University)

机构地区：[1]南京大学商学院,210008

出　　处：《经济评论》2024年第6期117-133,共17页Economic Review

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“构建面向全球的高标准贸易与投资协定网络及影响研究”(23JJD790007);国家自然科学基金面上项目“标准制度型开放促进产业链供应链现代化的机制、路径与对策研究”(72473064)的资助。

摘　　要：伴随区域贸易协定规则日益深化,大量触及缔约方内部规制的条款塑造了影响第三方贸易的新型渠道,对经典的贸易转移理论带来挑战。本文围绕中国的区域贸易协定网络,使用2002—2020年中国出口产品数据,实证检验了区域贸易协定及其深度对中国与第三方贸易的影响。结果表明,深层区域贸易协定对第三方贸易产生了不同于贸易转移的新型溢出,并通过区域贸易协定伙伴与第三方之间的空间、需求、制度和贸易协定规则联系进行扩散。这种溢出效应源于深层区域贸易协定促进了经济体间产品监管规则融合、降低了对国际贸易的实质性阻碍,具备了有助于国际贸易的公共利益。并且深层协定的正面溢出效应在WTO-X和WTO-plus的具体条款中均有显著表现,在技术密集型行业中表现得更加突出。研究发现有助于从第三方视角理解深层区域贸易协定的溢出效应,为中国对标国际高标准规则、扩大制度型开放提供全新的理论支撑和政策启示。With the deepening of rules in regional trade agreements(RTAs), a great number of provisions that touch on domestic regulations within contracting parties have shaped new channels that affect third-party trade, posing challenges to the classic theory of trade diversion. This paper focuses on China's RTA network and empirically tests the impact of RTAs and the depth on China's third-party trade using China's export product data from 2002 to 2020. The results indicate that deep RTAs have generated a new type of spillover on third-party trade, which is different from trade diversion, and spreads through the spatial, demand, institutional, and RTA connections between RTA partners and third parties. These spillover effects originate because deep RTAs promote the integration of product regulatory rules between countries, reduce substantive obstacles to international trade, and have a public interest in contributing to international trade. And the positive spillover effects are significantly reflected in WTO-X and WTO-plus provisions, particularly in technology-intensive industries. The research findings contribute to understanding the spillover effects of deep RTAs from a third-party perspective, providing new theoretical support and policy insights for China to benchmark international high-standard rules and expand institutional openness.

关 键 词：深层贸易协定 第三方效应 贸易转移 溢出效应 

分 类 号：F744[经济管理—国际贸易]