基于定位、速度双误差的物流无人机碰撞概率分析  

Collision probability analysis of logistics UAV based onpositioning and speed double errors

作　　者：靳慧斌[1] 刘希 黄俊 陈怿淳 JIN Huibin;LIU Xi;HUANG Jun;CHEN Yichun(School of Transportation Science and Engineering,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China;CAAC Airworthiness Certification Center,Shanghai 200232,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学交通科学与工程学院,天津300300 [2]中国民用航空上海航空器适航审定中心,上海200232

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2024年第10期64-70,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目资助(62132017)。

摘　　要：物流无人机(UAV)批量运行会存在一定的碰撞风险,为量化UAV之间在空中的碰撞概率,针对物流UAV空中运行阶段开展建模分析其碰撞风险。基于冲突区域理论,建立定位、速度双误差的UAV碰撞概率模型,分析不同夹角情况下物流UAV碰撞概率变化情况。分析识别美国联邦航空管理局官网中关于民用小型UAV的事故/事件数据中的关键风险因素。结合2万飞行小时的物流UAV故障数据建立UAV安全飞行间隔模型,给出可接受安全水平下的最短飞行间隔。探究在给定飞行间隔前提下不同航迹角以及不同风向对UAV之间碰撞概率的影响。结果表明:当物流UAV之间最短安全间隔大于90.71 m时,所有飞行场景下UAV的风险水平均在可接受范围之内。当航迹角为30、60、90°时,碰撞概率随风向变化的波动范围较小,其中,航迹夹角为90°时最稳定。而当夹角为140°时,碰撞概率的波动范围较大,UAV安全飞行对环境因素更为敏感。There is a risk of collision in the batch operation of logistics UAVs.To evaluate the collision probability between UAVs in the air,a model was proposed to analyze the collision risk of logistics UAVs in the aerial operation stage.A UAV collision probability model with the double errors of positioning and velocity was proposed based on the conflict zone theory,and the logistics UAV collision probability variations are analyzed from different angles.The key risk factors in small civil UAV accident/incident data were analyzed and identified based on the data from the Federal Aviation Administration of the United States.The UAV safety flight interval model was proposed based on the logistics UAV failure data of 20 thousand flight hours to determine the shortest flight interval under the acceptable safety level.Furthermore,the effects of track angles and wind directions on the collision probability between UAVs under constant flight intervals were investigated.The results showed that the risk for all flight scenarios was acceptable when the shortest safety interval between logistics UAVs exceeded 90.71 m.When the track angle was 30,60,and 90°,the collision probability varied little with the wind direction.Specifically,the collision probability was maintained constantly when the track angle was 90°.The collision probability varied a lot when the angle was 140°,thereby the safe flight of the UAV was sensitive to environmental factors.

关 键 词：定位误差 速度误差 物流无人机(UAV) 碰撞概率 冲突区域 航迹夹角 飞行间隔 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]