支农再贷款结构性货币政策的有效性——基于金融CGE模型  

Effectiveness of the Structural Monetary Policy of Re-Loans for Supporting Agriculture: A Financial CGE Model

作　　者：邝雄 郑远果 KUANG Xiong;ZHENG Yuanguo(International Business School,Hainan University,Haikou 570228)

机构地区：[1]海南大学国际商学院,海口570228

出　　处：《系统科学与数学》2024年第11期3281-3297,共17页Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71963011)资助课题。

摘　　要：支农再贷款是中央银行为解决中国“三农”融资结构性问题而实施的长期性结构性货币政策,其政策实施对宏观经济具有重要影响.为明晰支农再贷款政策实施的政策效果,文章编制中国金融社会核算矩阵(social accounting matrix,SAM),并在此基础之上构建相对应的中国金融可计算一般均衡模型(computable general equilibrium model,CGE),模拟了支农再贷款政策对中国农业、农村、农民和其他经济变量的影响.研究结果表明:支农再贷款政策促进了经济、就业和农村居民收入的增长,改善“三农”融资难问题,但需注意潜在的通货膨胀风险,所以需要相关后续配套政策对宏观经济进一步调整.The re-loans for supporting agriculture policy,a long-term structural monetary measure adopted by the central bank,aims to address the financing challenges in China's agriculture,rural areas,and farmers'economy.This policy has significant implications for the overall economy.To analyze the effects of this policy,this study constructs a Chinese financial social accounting matrix(SAM)and develops a Chinese financial computable general equilibrium(CGE)model based on this FSAM.Through the simulation,the study assesses how the re-loans for supporting agriculture policy impacts China's agriculture,rural areas,farmers,and other economic indicators.The results suggest that this policy contributes to economic growth,employment,and income increase for rural residents,easing the financing difficulties faced by agriculture,rural areas,and farmers.However,attention should be paid to potential inflation risks,necessitating additional supporting policies for further macroeconomic adjustments.

关 键 词：结构性货币政策 支农再贷款 金融CGE模型 政策模拟 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学] F832.43