青海省畜牧CO_(2)排放与经济效益的脱钩关系及其驱动效应  

Decoupling relationship and driving effect between livestock carbon emissions and economic efficiency in Qinghai Province

作　　者：李军豪 裴孝东 杨国靖 石贵 张聪 周立华 LI Junhao;PEI Xiaodong;YANG Guojing;SHI Gui;ZHANG Cong;ZHOU Lihua(Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands,Lanzhou 730000,China;Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,兰州730000 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]干旱区生态安全与可持续发展重点实验室,兰州730000 [4]中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京100190

出　　处：《生态学报》2024年第22期10146-10161,共16页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(A类)(XDA26010301);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0404);中国科学院青海省人民政府三江源国家公园联合研究专项项目(LHZX-2020-09)。

摘　　要：温室气体排放量的增加是全球气候变暖的主要原因,其中畜牧业则是温室气体排放的重要来源。为推动畜牧业的发展并有效减少温室气体排放,青海省积极推进了生态畜牧业建设,以统筹协调生态保护和畜牧业的可持续发展。为厘清生态畜牧业能否在促进碳减排的同时保持经济效益,分析了2008—2018年青海省畜牧业CO_(2)排放的演变特征,并采用Tapio脱钩弹性和对数平均迪氏指数法(LMDI)模型,对畜牧经济效益与畜牧CO_(2)排放之间的脱钩关系及其驱动因素展开了研究。研究结果表明:(1)在青海省生态畜牧业政策的大力推行下,畜牧CO_(2)排放量和畜牧业产值尽管均呈增加趋势,但畜牧CO_(2)排放强度下降了48.05%,表明青海省畜牧业正在逐渐走上绿色低碳的高质量发展道路。(2)畜牧CO_(2)排放量与畜牧经济效益之间呈现以弱脱钩为主的较理想状态,但易受区域自然禀赋、生态保护政策调整和市场价格的影响。这说明青海省畜牧业低碳发展具有较大潜力,建议持续加强生态畜牧业建设,提高抗风险能力。(3)在生态保护政策和生态畜牧业建设的背景下,畜牧业技术效率、产业结构和农村人口比例是推动畜牧CO_(2)排放与经济效益脱钩的重要因素。为实现畜牧业高质量发展,研究提出了推进青海省畜牧业低碳发展的相应建议。以期统筹畜牧业在碳减排与经济效益之间取得平衡,为生态畜牧业发展的相关政策制定和决策提供科学依据。The increase in greenhouse gas emissions is the main cause of global warming,and animal husbandry is a significant contributor to these emissions.In order to promote the development of animal husbandry and effectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions,Qinghai Province has actively promoted the construction of an ecological animal husbandry industry,aiming to integrate and coordinate ecological protection with the sustainable development of the animal husbandry sector.However,it remains unclear whether ecological animal husbandry can effectively promote carbon emission reduction while maintaining economic efficiency.To address this uncertainty and facilitate the low⁃carbon development of animal husbandry,this study analyzed the evolutionary characteristics of CO_(2)emissions from animal husbandry in Qinghai Province from 2008 to 2018.Additionally,it employed the Tapio decoupling elasticity and log⁃mean Dee′s index(LMDI)model to analyze the decoupling relationship between animal husbandry economic efficiency and CO_(2)emissions,along with their driving factors.The results indicate that:(1)Despite the increasing trend in both animal husbandry CO_(2)emissions and the value of animal husbandry output amidst the vigorous implementation of ecological animal husbandry policies in Qinghai Province,there has been a notable decrease of 48.05%in the intensity of animal husbandry CO_(2)emissions.It suggests that the animal husbandry industry was gradually transitioning towards high⁃quality development in a green and low⁃carbon manner.(2)The relationship between livestock CO_(2)emissions and livestock economic benefits demonstrated a desirable state dominated by weak decoupling.However,this relationship is vulnerable to regional natural endowments,adjustments in ecological protection policies,and market prices.It suggests that the low⁃carbon development of animal husbandry in Qinghai Province holds greater potential,and it is recommended to continuously strengthen the construction of ecological animal husbandry to en

关 键 词：温室气体 畜牧业CO_(2) 经济效益 脱钩效应 畜牧业低碳发展 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济] X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]