近30年来青藏高原粮食供需平衡格局演变及其驱动因素  

Evolution and driving factors of grain supply and demand balance in the Qinghai⁃Tibet Plateau in recent 30 years

作　　者：段健 王维婷 徐勇[2,3] 汝旖星 DUAN Jian;WANG Weiting;XU Yong;RU Yixing(College of Geography and Environment Sciences,Zhejiang Normal University,Jinhua 321000,China;Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江师范大学地理与环境科学学院,金华321000 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 [3]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049

出　　处：《生态学报》2024年第22期10411-10426,共16页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0406);国家自然科学基金项目(42001128)。

摘　　要：科学评价青藏高原粮食供需平衡时空格局演化及其影响因素,是保障青藏高原粮食安全和农业可持续发展的基本前提,对巩固边疆、促进少数民族地区经济发展和社会稳定具有重要的战略意义。综合采用消费统计法、产销平衡指数、空间趋势面分析和OPGD模型,探究1990—2020年青藏高原粮食供需平衡格局时空变化过程及其影响因素,探讨提高青藏高原粮食安全和农业可持续发展的政策建议。研究结果显示:1990—2020年青藏高原粮食自给率由106.53%提高至120.21%,区域整体粮食供求关系由紧平衡向供需平衡过渡,但粮食供需格局区域差异显著。粮食短缺和严重短缺类型区交叉分布于藏北高原、青海高原、甘南高原、柴达木盆地西部及川藏高山峡谷区等地区;青藏高原粮食产量空间分异主要受自然条件地域分异、要素投入差异和经济发展差距影响,且经济因素与要素投入具有协同增强效果;收入水平、食物可达性、食物消费结构、人口结构对青藏高原粮食消费空间分异的解释力依次减弱。建议从粮食产销合作、农牧合作、种植结构调整、完善内外交通基础设施和地方粮食储备等方面提高青藏高原粮食安全水平。Evaluating the spatiotemporal evolution of grain supply⁃demand balance and its influencing factors on the Qinghai⁃Tibet Plateau is crucial for ensuring food security and sustainable agricultural development.It plays a strategic role in strengthening border areas,promoting economic growth in ethnic minority regions,and ensuring social stability.This study utilizes a comprehensive approach,combining consumption statistics,production⁃sales balance index,spatial trend surface analysis,and the OPGD model,to investigate the spatiotemporal changes in the grain supply⁃demand balance on the Qinghai⁃Tibet Plateau from 1990 to 2020,as well as the underlying factors driving these changes.Additionally,the study aims to provide policy recommendations for enhancing food security and facilitating sustainable agricultural development in the Qinghai⁃Tibet Plateau.The research results reveal that the self⁃sufficiency rate of grain on the Qinghai⁃Tibet Plateau increased from 106.53%to 120.21%between 1990 and 2020.The regional grain supply⁃demand relationship shifted from a state of tight balance to balanced supply and demand overall.However,notable regional disparities exist in the grain supply⁃demand pattern.The intersection of grain shortages and severe shortages occurs in regions such as the northern Tibetan Plateau,Qinghai Plateau,Gannan Plateau,western part of the Qaidam Basin,and the Sichuan⁃Tibet alpine valley areas.Areas with grain surplus and abundance are concentrated in the Yarlung Zangbo River and its two tributaries in southern Tibet,the Hehuang Valle,the river valleys in the high mountain canyons of the Sichuan⁃Tibet region,and the oasis agricultural areas in the Pamir⁃Kunlun Mountains region.These areas are predominantly agricultural counties.The critical equilibrium zone is distributed in a belt⁃like pattern along the northern and southern border areas of the Qinghai⁃Tibet Plateau.The spatial variation in grain production on the Qinghai⁃Tibet Plateau is mainly influenced by regional di

关 键 词：粮食供需平衡 粮食安全 地理探测器 青藏高原 空间格局 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]