基于复杂系统视角的辽中南工业基地可持续发展评估及耦合演化机理分析  

Sustainable development assessment and coupling evolution mechanism analysis of Mid⁃southern Liaoning industrial base based on complex system perspective

作　　者：姜凤珍 李翠苓 JIANG Fengzhen;LI Cuiling(Qingdao University of Technology,Qingdao 266520,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛理工大学管理工程学院,青岛266520

出　　处：《生态学报》2024年第22期10452-10470,共19页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72001121)。

摘　　要：为探索传统工业集聚城市“屡振不兴、屡振难兴”的症结,从破解困局的可持续发展视角出发,以辽中南工业基地为例建立综合评价指标体系对其2007—2021年的可持续发展水平进行评估,采用基于变异系数熵权法的指标加权求和技术,引入耦合协调度模型、障碍度模型,并将复杂适应系统(CAS)理论嵌入分析过程,将定量与定性研究相结合,全面评估辽中南工业基地的可持续发展情况。研究表明:(1)辽中南工业基地可持续发展水平具有显著的阶段性,如今正处于经济发展的回暖阶段,但可持续性水平依然较弱。(2)经济发展是制约该地区可持续发展的短板,环境质量为优势可持续类型,这种现象为理解“负脱钩”或“弱脱钩”现象提供了切入点。(3)可持续发展和耦合协调度水平空间两极分化严重,区域不平衡性显著,自北向南呈现高—低—高的演化特征,具有空间异质性;耦合协调度水平有协调向好趋势,正处于勉强协调向初级协调的过渡阶段。(4)经济实力和基础设施建设较孤立与分散是经济发展与民生福祉系统的主要障碍,实现资源短缺与低效利用之间的动态平衡并确保自然绿地的开发适度性是促进资源与环境可持续发展的重要着力点。(5)面对城市发展进程中的复杂交互式挑战,要将政府的适应性管理、企业的适应性变革和当地居民的主体适应性有机结合,推动科学技术与政策调整相互促进,进而实现可持续发展的良性循环。In order to explore the crux of the traditional industrial agglomeration city,this paper starts from the perspective of solving the predicament of sustainable development,taking Mid⁃southern Liaoning industrial base as an example,a comprehensive evaluation index system is established to assess its sustainable development level from 2007 to 2021,and the weighted summation technique of indicators based on the entropy weighting method of coefficient of variation is adopted to introduce the coupled coordination degree model and the obstacle degree model,and the theory of complex adaptive system(CAS)is embedded in the analytical process,combining quantitative and qualitative research to comprehensively assess the sustainable development of Mid⁃southern Liaoning industrial base.The study shows that:(1)The level of sustainable development of Mid⁃southern Liaoning industrial base has a significant stage,and now it is in the stage of rebound of economic development,but the level of sustainability is still weak.(2)Economic development is a shortcoming that constrains sustainable development in the region,and environmental quality is a dominant sustainable type.This phenomenon provides an entry point for understanding the phenomenon of"negative decoupling"or"weak decoupling".(3)The level of sustainable development and coupled coordination degree has serious spatial polarization and significant regional imbalance,showing a high⁃low⁃high evolution characteristic from north to south,with spatial heterogeneity;the level of coupled coordination degree has a tendency to be coordinated to a better level,and is in the transition stage from barely coordinated to primary coordinated.(4)Economic strength is the main factor limiting economic development;infrastructure development has a greater impact on people′s livelihood and well⁃being systems;realizing a dynamic balance between resource scarcity and inefficient use of resources is the focus of efforts to promote sustainable development of resources;and overexploitation

关 键 词：可持续发展目标 耦合协调 复杂适应系统 可持续性评价 辽中南工业基地 

分 类 号：F427[经济管理—产业经济]