粤港澳大湾区滨海自然与人工湿地演变及驱动因素分析  

Evolution of coastal natural and constructed wetlands and its driving factor analysis in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

作　　者：赵铜铁钢 吴迪熠 杨振华 陈文龙 ZHAO Tongtiegang;WU Diyi;YANG Zhenhua;CHEN Wenlong(Center of Water Resources and Enviroment,Sun Yat-Sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China;Eco-Environmental Monitoring and Scientific Research Center,Bureau of Eco-Environmental Supervision of South China Sea Water and Pearl River Basin,Ministry of Ecology and Environment,Guangzhou 510610,China;Pearl River Water Resources Research Institute,Pearl River Water Resources Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources,Guangzhou 510611,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学水资源与环境研究中心,广东珠海510275 [2]生态环境部珠江流域南海海域生态环境监督管理局生态环境监测与科学研究中心,广东广州510610 [3]珠江水利委员会珠江水利科学研究院,广东广州510611

出　　处：《水资源保护》2024年第6期38-47,共10页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：广东省“珠江人才计划”青年创新团队项目(2019ZT08G090)。

摘　　要：通过构建随机森林模型提取了1987—2020年粤港澳大湾区滨海湿地分布数据,采用环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)、主成分分析、敏感性分析等方法分析了其演变规律与驱动因素。结果表明:粤港澳大湾区滨海自然与人工湿地呈现不同变化特征,自然湿地面积持续减少,人工湿地面积呈周期性先增加后减少;滨海湿地面积与单位面积GDP之间的EKC在广州、珠海、中山、江门表现为“快速上升—快速下降”的二次倒U形曲线,在深圳为三次倒N形曲线,在惠州、东莞以下降趋势为主;人口、第一产业产值等经济社会因素是粤港澳大湾区滨海湿地的主要驱动因素,气候因素通过交互作用驱动湿地变化,不同驱动因素的敏感度体现了城市经济结构特征。A random forest model for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area was constructed,the distribution of coastal wetlands from 1987 to 2020 was extracted year by year.Methods such as environmental Kuznets curve(EKC),principal component analysis,and sensitivity analysis were used to analyze the evolution patterns and driving factors.The results show that natural and constructed coastal wetlands in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area exhibit different characteristics,with natural wetland area continuing decreasing and constructed wetland area cyclically increasing and then decreasing.The EKC relationship between coastal wetland area and GDP per unit area exhibits inverted U-shaped curves of“rapid rising-rapid declining”in Guangzhou,Zhuhai,Zhongshan and Jiangmen cities,an inverse N-shaped curve in Shenzhen City,and downward trends in Huizhou and Dongguan cities.Economic and social factors such as population and output value of primary industry are the main driving factors of the coastal wetland in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.Climate factors drive wetland changes through interactions.The sensitivity of different driving factors reflects the characteristics of urban economic structure.

关 键 词：自然湿地 人工湿地 环境库兹涅茨曲线 经济社会驱动因素 粤港澳大湾区 

分 类 号：TV148[水利工程—水力学及河流动力学]