2023年度全球油气开发现状、形势及启示  

Global oil and gas development situation,trends and enlightenment in 2023

作　　者：王作乾[1] 范喆 陈希 李勇[1] 范子菲[1] 韦青[1] 彭云[1] 刘保磊 岳雯婷 王曦[1] 熊靓 WANG Zuoqian;FAN Zhe;CHEN Xi;LI Yong;FAN Zifei;WEI Qing;PENG Yun;LIU Baolei;YUE Wenting;WANG Xi;XIONG Liang(PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development,Beijing 100083,China;Yangtze University,Wuhan 430100,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083 [2]长江大学,武汉430100

出　　处：《石油勘探与开发》2024年第6期1331-1346,共16页Petroleum Exploration and Development

基　　金：中国石油天然气股份有限公司科学研究与技术开发项目“海外油气亿吨权益效益产量稳产关键工程及重大技术现场试验”(2023SC0105)。

摘　　要：通过对2023年全球油气田分布及生产概况、剩余可采储量分布及变化特征、不同区域及国家间油气生产差异对比、未建产与待建产油气田开发潜力4个方面的分析,梳理了全球油气开发现状与特征,总结了全球油气的开发形势。2023年全球油气上游生产版图不断扩大,在产油气田数显著增长;油气可采储量同比提升,新项目发现与储量复算贡献突出;油气产量持续增长,新项目投产和产能建设项目贡献显著;未建产/待建产油气田可采储量丰富,集中于陆上常规大油田与低经济性海域气田。以疫情叠加俄乌冲突重塑全球油气产区、地缘政治危机、油气勘探开发领域资本支出结构、油气伴生资源超前布局等视角为切入点深入分析,为后疫情时代及能源转型趋势下中国石油公司聚焦主营业务领域和明确战略发展方向提出4点启示与建议:全球油气格局深刻调整,把握发展趋势聚焦主营业务;上游业务开发潜力强劲,涉足新兴领域助力接续发展;致密/页岩油气前景可期,探索保障国家能源安全新路;战新产业实现前沿突破,建立综合能源协同保供体系。This paper presents an analysis of four aspects,including the distribution and production of global oil and gas fields,the distribution and changes of remaining recoverable reserves,the differences in oil and gas production between regions/countries,and the development potentials of oil and gas fields unproduced and to be produced in 2023.On this basis,the situation and characteristics of global oil and gas development are expounded,and the trend of global oil and gas development is forecasted.In 2023,upstream oil and gas production landscape is expanding,and the number of oil and gas fields in production is increasing significantly;oil and gas recoverable reserves increased year-on-year,driven by significant contributions from new discoveries and reserve revisions;the overall oil and gas production grew continuously,with notable contributions from new projects coming online and capacity expansion efforts;and the oil and gas fields unproduced or to be produced,especially large onshore conventional oil fields and economically challenging offshore gas fields,host abundant recoverable reserves.From the perspectives of reshaping oil and gas production areas due to the pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflicts,geopolitical crises,capital expenditure structures in petroleum exploration and development,and the proactive layout of associated resources,the trend of global oil and gas development in 2023 was analyzed systematically.The enlightenment and suggestions in four aspects are proposed for Chinese oil companies to focus on core businesses and clarify development strategies in the post-pandemic era and the context of energy transition:The global oil and gas landscape is undergoing profound adjustments,and it is essential to grasp development trends,especially in core businesses;upstream business exhibits a strong potential,and emerging fields are considered as a replacement;the prospects for tight/shale oil and gas are promising,and new pathways to ensure national energy security are explored;cutting-edge breakthroughs

关 键 词：全球油气开发 开发现状 开发潜力 非常规油气 油气伴生资源 海域油气 

分 类 号：TE329[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]