鄂尔多斯能源超级盆地模型构建与实现途径  

Model construction and implementation of Ordos Energy Super Basin,NW China

作　　者：贾爱林[1] 陈方轩 冯乃超 孟德伟[1] 郑帅 JIA Ailin;CHEN Fangxuan;FENG Naichao;MENG Dewei;ZHENG Shuai(PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration&Development,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083

出　　处：《石油勘探与开发》2024年第6期1409-1420,共12页Petroleum Exploration and Development

基　　金：中国石油天然气股份有限公司科学研究与技术开发项目“老气田‘压舱石工程’关键技术研究与示范”(2023YQX103);中国石油天然气股份有限公司科学研究与技术开发项目“致密砂岩气藏提高采收率关键技术研究”(2023ZZ25);中国石油天然气集团有限公司科学研究与技术开发项目“气藏采收率标定方法与复杂气藏提高采收率新技术研究”(2024DJ86)。

摘　　要：以鄂尔多斯盆地为例,提出建设能源超级盆地应遵循“量增碳减结构优”的基本原则,形成了能源超级盆地建模流程,基于鄂尔多斯盆地资源储量、开发现状及基础设施建设情况,评估盆地未来的发展潜力,分析建设能源超级盆地过程中存在的不确定性,提出鄂尔多斯能源超级盆地的目标愿景和实现路径。研究表明:①鄂尔多斯盆地具有能源丰富、基础设施完善、碳源汇匹配好、地广人稀、距离能源消纳地近的优点,具备建成能源超级盆地的有利条件。②预计2050年盆地能源供给量达到23×10^(8) t标准煤,化石能源占能源供给比例下降至41%,与2023年相比,碳排放量下降20×10^(8) t。③盆地未来建设应重点保障新能源发电装机和配储,集中攻关碳捕集、利用和埋存技术。Taking the Ordos Basin as an example,this paper proposed that the construction of an energy super basin should follow the principle of“more energy,less carbon,and better energy structure”.The modeling workflow of energy super basin was built.Based on the resources/reserves,development status and infrastructures of the Ordos Basin,the development potential of the basin was evaluated,the uncertainties in the construction of energy super basin were analyzed,and the future vision and realization path of the Ordos Energy Super Basin were recommended.This study demonstrates that the Ordos Basin has the advantages of abundant energy sources,perfect infrastructures,well-matched carbon source and sink,small population density,and proximity to the energy consumption areas.These characteristics ensure that the Ordos Basin is a good candidate of the energy super basin.It is expected that the energy supply of the Ordos Basin in 2050 will reach 23×10^(8) t of standard coal,and the proportion of fossil fuels in energy supply will decrease to 41%.The carbon emissions will decrease by 20×10^(8) t compared to the emissions in 2023.The future construction of the basin should focus on the generation and storage of renewable energy,and technological breakthroughs for the carbon capture,utilization and storage.

关 键 词：能源超级盆地 盆地模型 鄂尔多斯盆地 能源发展规划 化石能源 可再生能源 CCS/CCUS 

分 类 号：TE09[石油与天然气工程]