仓室模型在部队营区突发呼吸道传染病防控中的潜在应用研究  

Potential applications of a compartment model in the prevention and control of emerging respiratory infectious diseases in military camps

作　　者：王雪纯 张曦小雪 杨姗姗[2] 刘淼[1] WANG Xuechun;ZHANG Xixiaoxue;YANG Shanshan;LIU Miao(Graduate School,Chinese PLA General Hospital,Beijing 100853,China;Department of Disease Control and Prevention,First Medical Center,Chinese PLA General Gospital,Beijing 100853,China)

机构地区：[1]解放军总医院研究生院,北京100853 [2]解放军总医院第一医学中心疾病预防控制科,北京100853

出　　处：《军事医学》2024年第9期686-689,共4页Military Medical Sciences

基　　金：军事医学学科教材体系(145BXL090009000X);军事保健专项(22BJZ25)。

摘　　要：部队营区具有空间紧凑、人员密集等特点,突发呼吸道传染病在营区内部传播风险高、防控难度大。利用仓室模型实现疫情早期暴发的预警预测以及营区内部防控措施的选择与优化是部队卫生防疫的有效方式。突发呼吸道传染病在部队营区与社区等地传播特点具有极大相似性。该文梳理了国内外仓室模型应用实例,构建易感者-暴露者-感染者-康复者模型及易感者-暴露者-感染者-隔离者-康复者模型,模拟典型部队营区场景出现疫情后的趋势预测及防控措施选择,为部队营区突发呼吸道传染病防控、区域性突发呼吸道传染病智能预警平台建设提供参考。Military camps are characterized by compact space and high personnel density,which increases the risk of emerging respiratory infectious diseases and makes prevention and control difficult.One effective solution is to use a compartment model for early warning,prediction of epidemic outbreaks,and for optimization of precautions.Given the strong similarities in the transmission of emerging respiratory infectious diseases across military camps and communities,this article summarizes the cases where compartment models have been used both at home and abroad,constructs a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed model and a susceptible-exposed-infectious-quarantined-removed model,and simulates the prediction of trends and selection of prevention and control measures in typical military camp scenarios after the outbreak of an epidemic in hopes of providing references for the prevention and control of emerging respiratory infectious diseases and for the construction of a regional intelligent early warning platform in military camps.

关 键 词：部队营区 突发呼吸道传染病 传染病动力学模型 仓室模型 疫情防控 

分 类 号：R824[医药卫生—临床医学]