中印外商直接投资的“真实”技术溢出:基于对比的元回归分析视角  

"Genuine"FDI Technology Spillover Effects in China and India:A Study Based on Comparative Meta Regression Analysis

作　　者：何适 刘文智 吴林蔚 林怡强 HE ShiLIU;WenzhiWU;Linwei;LIN Yiqiang

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学经济学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2024年第11期62-76,119,M0003,共17页World Economy Studies

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究基金项目“RCEP区域人民币影响力的测度、影响因素与提升路径研究”(项目编号:21YJC790043);湖北省高等学校哲学社会科学研究重大项目“中国自由贸易试验区高质量发展研究——兼论对湖北的启示”(项目编号:22ZD016);中南财经政法大学研究生科研创新平台项目“‘真实’OFDI对人民币国际化的影响——基于投资‘目的地’视角的数据重构”(项目编号:202410335)资助。

摘　　要：高质量吸引和利用外商直接投资一直是新兴市场国家经济发展的重要议题。文章基于39篇中国文献和22篇印度文献,以中国和印度两大新兴市场国家为对象,在元分析框架下深入对比考察“真实”的中印外商直接投资技术溢出效应和影响因素。结果表明:(1)基本元分析发现,现有相关文献普遍存在严重发表偏倚,且印度相关文献的发表偏倚程度强于中国。(2)修正发表偏倚结果表明,在华外商直接投资的横向技术溢出(0.005)小于在印的横向溢出(0.016),外商直接投资在华的纵向传导为0.027,而在印的纵向溢出结果则不显著。多种元合成方法的结果依旧稳健。(3)多元元分析结果表明,外商直接投资技术溢出效应估计值会受到包括数据、模型和企业性质等多种因素的影响;结合合成估计的结果进一步验证,外商直接投资企业的市场导向不同是影响中印差异的重要原因。文章研究不仅提供一个系统的元分析应用实践,有利于解决学术界广泛关注的“外商直接投资技术溢出效应之谜”,还为新兴市场国家高质量利用外商直接投资提供有益的政策启示。High-quality attraction and utilization of foreign direct investment(FDI)have always been a significant topic for the economic development of emerging market countries.Based on a meta-analysis framework,this paper conducts an in-depth comparative study of the"real"FDI technology spllover effects and influencing factors in China and India,two major emerging market economies,drawing on 39 Chinese and 22 Indian sample literatures.The findings indicate that,firstly,basic meta-analysis reveals that generally there is a serious presence of Type I and Type II publication biases across the relevant existing literature,with the publication bias for Indian literature being more pronounced than that for Chinese literature.Secondly,after correcting for publication bias,the results show that the horizontal technology spllover from FDI in China(0.005)is smaller than that in India(0.016),while the vertical spillover in China is 0.027,and the vertical spillover effect in India is not significant.The results from various meta-analytic methods remain robust.Thirdly,multivariate meta-analysis results suggest that the estimated values of FDI technology spllover effects are influenced by a variety of factors,including data,models,and enterprise features.Combined with the results of synthetic practices,it is further verified that the different market orientations of FDI enterprises are an important reason for the differences between China and India.This study not only provides a systematic application of meta-analysis practice,which is beneficial for addressing the widely observed"puzzle"of FDI technology spillover effects in academia,but also offers valuable policy insights for emerging market countries to utilize high quality FDI.

关 键 词：外商直接投资 技术溢出效应 元分析 发表偏倚 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学] F833.51