我国制造业资本劳动替代弹性和技术进步偏向——基于企业微观数据的测算  

Substitution Elasticity of Capital and Labor and the Directed Technological Progress in China's Manufacturing Sector:Based on the Microdata

作　　者：张延群 贺伟东[3] YANQUN ZHANG;WEIDONG HE(Faculty of Applied Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;Institute of Quantitative&Technical Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;Business School,Beijing Normal University)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院 [2]中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所 [3]北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院

出　　处：《产业经济评论》2024年第6期27-41,共15页Review of Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目“宏观大数据建模和预测研究”(批准号:71991475);中国社会科学院创新工程基础学者资助项目“中国收入分配有关问题研究”(批准号:XJ2023012);“中国社会科学院经济大数据与政策评估实验室”(批准号:2024SYZH004)阶段性成果。

摘　　要：资本劳动替代弹性和技术进步方向是CES生产函数中的重要参数。本文基于工业企业数据库,运用从微观到宏观的加总方法,估计制造业28个行业的局部替代弹性,考虑资本强度异质性,将行业局部替代弹性加总为行业整体以及制造业总体替代弹性,并识别制造业技术进步偏向。研究发现,我国28个制造业行业的整体替代弹性存在较大差异,制造业总体替代弹性呈下降趋势,从1998~2001年的1.13下降到2011~2013年的0.88。技术进步为相对资本增强型。用替代弹性和技术进步对近20年制造业劳动收入份额变化进行因素分解,发现技术进步是导致制造业劳动收入份额变化的主要因素。The substitution elasticity of capital and labor and the directed technological progress are important parameters in the CES production function.Using the plants data of China's Industrial Enterprise Database and the method from micro to macro,the local substitution elasticity of capital and labor of 28 industries are estimated.Then the local elasticities and the heterogeneity of plants and industries in the capital intensity are used to calculate the substitution elasticity of industries and the manufacturing sector.Based on the estimated substitution elasticity,the direction of technological progress is identified.We find that the elasticity of the manufacturing sector shows a downward trend,declining from 1.13 in 1998-2001 to 0.88 in 2011-2013.The direction of technological progress showed a relative capital augmented.The measured alternative elasticity and technological progress direction are used to decompose the contributions of the labor income share in the past 20 years.It turns out that the bias of technological progress is the main factor.The change of future labor income share depends on the relative contributions of relative factor price changes and biased technological progress.

关 键 词：资本劳动替代弹性 技术进步方向 微观数据 宏观加总 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F424F249.2