多源融合实况分析产品2022年度研发改进及应用进展  

Advancement and Application of Multi-Source Merged Real-Time Analysis Products in 2022

作　　者：庞紫豪 谷军霞[1] 张志强[1] 师春香[1] 韩帅[1] 姜文静 徐宾[1] 张涛[1] Pang Zihao;Gu Junxia;Zhang Zhiqiang;Shi Chunxiang;Han Shuai;Jiang Wenjing;Xu Bin;Zhang Tao(National Meteorological Information Centre,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]国家气象信息中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象科技进展》2024年第5期37-46,共10页Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：国家气象信息中心结余资金项目(NMICJY202306);“十四五”民用航天技术预先研究项目(D040405);国家自然科学基金项目(42205049);中国气象局暴雨精细化分析和预报青年创新团队专项(CMA2023QN05);风云卫星应用先行计划(2022)(FY-APP-2022.0608)。

摘　　要：简要总结了国家气象信息中心多源融合实况分析产品在2022年的研发和改进进展,重点阐述了实况产品在高影响天气过程监测和重大服务保障中的应用情况。通过多源数据协同质量控制技术、复杂地形实况分析技术、风云卫星应用同化技术、网格实况真实性检验4方面的优化,改进降水、气温等实况产品质量。其中,气温产品在复杂地形区误差降低20%,有效剔除了虚假降水和80%融雪性降水,改善了复杂山区降水信息;大气风场误差降低2%;大气湿度误差降低3.5%。在暴雨、台风、高温、寒潮等监测服务中,系统反映了“龙舟水”期间对流系统的活动特征;准确捕捉台风“梅花”降水落区的演变、雨强大小、大风影响范围以及台风的垂直结构等特征;对于极端高温天气和寒潮中雨雪冰冻及大风的影响区域均有较好的监测效果;在山洪等突发事件中,实况产品的分钟级数据有效弥补了站点稀疏区监测资料的不足;百米分辨率实况产品有效支撑了2022年冬奥气象服务保障。A concise summary of the advancements in the research and development of multi-source merged real-time analysis products in National Meteorological Information Centre in 2022 is presented,emphasizing the application of these products in the monitoring of high-impact weather processes and their crucial role in providing significant service support.By optimizing four key aspects,namely multi-source data collaborative quality control technology,real-time analysis technology for complex terrains,Fengyun satellite data assimilation technology,and authenticity verification technology,significant improvements have been achieved in enhancing the quality of real-time products such as precipitation and temperature.Notably,there has been a reduction of 20%in temperature product errors within complex terrain areas,effectively eliminating false precipitation and 80%snowmelt precipitation,and therefore enhancing the accuracy of rainfall information in complex mountainous regions.Additionally,atmospheric wind field errors have decreased by 2%,while humidity errors have reduced by 3.5%.For severe weather events such as heavy rainstorms,typhoons,heatwaves,cold waves etc.,products accurately reflected the characteristics of convective systems during Dragon Boat Water period and precisely captured the evolution of precipitation areas,rainfall intensity,impacted areas by strong winds,and vertical structure of Typhoon Muifa.Furthermore,products demonstrated excellent monitoring capabilities for extreme hot weather conditions and rain/snow/ice/freeze events as well as strong winds during cold waves.Moreover,in emergency events such as flash floods,the minute-level data provided by real-time products effectively compensated for the lack of monitoring information in sparse station areas.And the 100-meter resolution real-time products effectively supported the meteorological service for the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympic Games.

关 键 词：多源融合 实况产品 研发改进 监测应用 突发事件 气象保障 

分 类 号：P4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]