煤矿动态预测涌水量的不确定性分析与风险应对措施  

Uncertainty analysis and risk response research of coal mine dynamic forecast water inflow

作　　者：周亚楠 崔毅斌 Zhou Yanan;Cui Yibin(Henan Institute of Geophysical Spatial Information Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450000,China;Henan Geological Geophysical Engineering Technology Research Center,Zhengzhou 450000,China)

机构地区：[1]河南省地球物理空间信息研究院有限公司,河南郑州450000 [2]河南省地质物探工程技术研究中心,河南郑州450000

出　　处：《能源与环保》2024年第11期281-286,共6页CHINA ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

摘　　要：以纳林河二号煤矿为例,基于纳林河二号煤矿的水文地质条件,合理构建煤矿地下水概念模型和数值模型。编制煤矿涌水预测方案,采用大井法、集水廊道法、数值法分别预测煤矿矿井动态涌水量。根据3种方法的计算结果可知,当煤矿工作面开采至3-1上煤层标高506.95 m时,矿井动态涌水量预测结果分别为24 831.66、8 318.44、13 823.93 m^(3)/d;当3-1上煤层工作面和3-1煤层工作面同时开采时,矿井动态涌水量预测结果分别为50 814.29、17 177.66、27 662.51 m^(3)/d。另外,为进一步保证分析结果的精准性,从渗透系数、贮水系数等角度实施煤矿动态预测涌水量的不确定性分析,根据分析结果确认渗透系数是预测结果的主要影响因素。针对矿井涌水风险,对水源识别、事故前兆、风险预测等常用风险预警预报方法进行介绍,并从完善安全监督管理系统、加强职工安全技术培训2个角度说明井工矿风险规避措施。Taking Nalinghe No.2 Coal Mine as an example,based on the hydrogeological conditions of Nalinghe No.2 Coal Mine,a reasonable conceptual model and numerical model of coal mine groundwater were constructed.The prediction scheme of coal mine water inflow was prepared,and the dynamic water inflow of coal mine was predicted by large well method,water collection gallery method and numerical method respectively.According to the calculation results of the three methods,when the coal mine working face was mined to an elevation of 506.95 m in the 3-1 upper coal seam,the predicted dynamic water inflow of the mine was 24831.66 m^(3)/d,8318.44 m^(3)/d,and 13823.93 m^(3)/d,respectively;when the 3-1 upper coal seam working face and the 3-1 coal seam working face were simultaneously mined,the predicted dynamic water inflow of the mine was 50814.29 m^(3)/d,17177.66 m^(3)/d,and 27662.51 m^(3)/d,respectively.In addition,to further ensure the accuracy of the analysis results,uncertainty analysis of dynamic prediction of water inflow in coal mines was carried out from the perspectives of permeability coefficient,water storage coefficient,etc.Based on the analysis results,it was confirmed that permeability coefficient is the main influencing factor of the prediction results.This article introduced commonly used risk warning and forecasting methods such as water source identification,accident precursors,and risk prediction for mine water inrush risks.It also explained risk avoidance measures for mining from two perspectives:improving safety supervision and management systems and strengthening employee safety technical training.

关 键 词：动态涌水量 不确定性分析 风险应对 数值法 

分 类 号：TD742[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]