塔里木河流域实际灌溉面积变化及其对陆地水储量的影响分析  

Analysis of changes in the actual irrigated area of the Tarim River Basin and its impact on terrestrial water reserves

作　　者：徐冉 郝震[1,2] 赵红莉 马佳丽[1,2] 贺君彦 王镕 XU Ran;HAO Zhen;ZHAO Hongli;MA Jiali;HE Junyan;WANG Rong(China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Key Laboratory of Digital Twin Basins,Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100038,China;School of Infrastructure Engineering,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038 [2]水利部数字孪生流域重点实验室,北京100038 [3]大连理工大学建设工程学院,大连116024

出　　处：《中国水利水电科学研究院学报（中英文）》2024年第6期612-622,共11页Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research

基　　金：十四五国家重点研发计划(2021YFB3900602)。

摘　　要：塔里木河(简称塔河)流域是典型的干旱绿洲农业区,明晰农业灌溉面积增长对流域水储量的影响,对于维护流域生态环境稳定和可持续发展尤为重要。本文提出了基于作物长势的实际灌溉面积遥感监测方法,采用Landsat卫星影像解译了塔河流域2003—2022年实际灌溉面积,利用相关系数及脱钩指数评价了流域实际灌溉面积变化与水储量的相关和依赖关系。研究结果表明:(1)干旱区灌溉与非灌溉植被长势差异显著,以卫星遥感影像计算的作物生育期内最大植被指数(NDVI)为分类指标,采用随机森林分类器辅以一定数量的样本,可实现大范围年实际灌溉面积的快速提取;(2)塔河流域2003—2022年间实际灌溉面积由2989万亩增加到5420万亩,增长比例为81.33%。5个地州中增长量最大的是阿克苏地区,共增了926万亩,增长比例为87.94%;其次是喀什地区,共增长了668万亩,增长比例为77.44%;(3)从相关系数上看,塔河流域2003—2022年间实际灌溉面积与陆地水储量的相关系数为-0.74,5个地州中阿克苏相关性最高,为-0.96,克州最小,为-0.56;(4)从脱钩指数上看,整个流域灌溉面积的增长强依赖于水储量消耗,虽然依赖度近年来有所降低,但未达脱钩状态。从空间上看,喀什、克州、巴州、阿克苏均为强依赖状态,和田为脱钩状态。上述结果表明,对塔河流域大部分地区而言,如果灌溉效率没有显著提升,灌溉面积已不宜继续扩大。本文的研究结果可为塔里木河流域水资源管理与可持续发展提供参考。The Tarim River Basin is a typical arid oasis agricultural area,and clarifying the impact of the growth of irrigated agricultural areas on water storage in the basin was particularly important for maintaining the stability of the ecological environment and sustainable development of the region.In this study,we constructed a remote sensing monitoring method for actual irrigated area based on crop growth,deciphered the actual irrigated area in the Tarim River Basin from 2003 to 2022,and used the correlation coefficient and decoupling index to evaluate the correlation and dependence of the change in actual irrigated area and water storage in the basin.The results of the study showed that:(1)the growth of irrigated and non-irrigated vegetation in the arid zone differed significantly,and the rapid extraction of the actual irrigated area over a wide range of years could be realized by using the maximum vegetation index(NDVI)during the crop reproductive period calculated from satellite remote sensing imagery as a classification index,and using a random forest classifier supplemented with a certain number of samples;(2)the actual irrigated area of the Tarim Basin during the period of 2003-2022 increased from 29,890 square kilometers.The largest increase among the five prefectures was in Aksu,with a total increase of 9.26 million mu,or 87.94%,followed by Kashgar,with a total increase of 6.68 million mu,or 77.44%;(3)The correlation coefficient between the actual irrigated area and the land water reserve in the Tarim Basin during the period of 2003-2022 was 0.74,with the highest correlation of 0.96 in Aksu and the smallest of 0.56 in Kezhou among the five prefectures.(4)From the decoupling coefficient,the growth of irrigated area in the whole basin was strongly dependent on the depletion of water reserves,and the degree of dependence had been reduced in recent years,but it had not reached the decoupling status.From a spatial perspective,Kashgar,Kezhou,Bazhou,and Aksu were strongly dependent,while Hotan was decoupled.The abo

关 键 词：塔里木河流域 实际灌溉面积 时空变化 陆地水储量 脱钩指数 随机森林分类 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]