美国“一体化威慑”战略的演进逻辑、架构特征及限度  

The Evolutionary Logic,Structural Characteristics and Limits of the US'"Integrated Deterrence"Strategy

作　　者：李书剑 Li Shujian

机构地区：[1]中国人民解放军军事科学院

出　　处：《俄罗斯学刊》2024年第6期115-133,共19页Academic Journal of Russian Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“美西方涉疆负面话语对文化润疆的冲击、影响及应对研究”(项目批准号:23CGJ017)阶段性成果。

摘　　要：二战后,美国的威慑理论在战略实践中不断发展演进,并反过来指导其威慑战略实践,其核心是制造战略敌手并调动战略资源对其进行遏制,以维护自身全球霸权。拜登上台后,不断升级针对中国的围堵政策,整合美国各政府机构与盟友,升级军事作战装备、智能武器与操作系统,以核威慑、互操作性与“零信任”架构为主要抓手,旨在打造全政府、全领域、全盟域、核威慑与常规军事威慑相结合的所谓“一体化威慑”战略。不过,该战略面临五大短板与不足:美中关系定位的不确定性、威慑可信度的不确定性、新武器系统开发不足、美国与盟友之间协调困难以及威慑对象坚守核心利益不退让。中国在对美保持战略定力的同时可积极推进三大全球倡议,巩固提高国家战略体系和能力,加强战略部队建设与联合指挥作战体系等,以应对美国“一体化威慑”战略。After World War II,the US'deterrence theory has been continuously developed with and in turn guided its strategic practice.The core of this theory is to create strategic adversaries and mobilize strategic resources to contain them in order to maintain global hegemony.After Biden came to power,he continuously upgraded the containment policy against China,integrated various US government agencies and allies,upgraded military combat equipment,intelligent weapons and operating systems,and took nuclear deterrence,interoperability and"zero trust"architecture as the main focus,aiming to create a so-called"integrated deterrence"strategy that combines the whole government,all fields,all alliances,nuclear deterrence and conventional military deterrence.However,the strategy faces five major shortcomings and deficiencies:uncertainty in the positioning of US-China relations,uncertainty in the credibility of deterrence,insufficient development of new weapon systems,difficulty in coordination between the US and its allies,and the deterrence targets'adherence to core interests and unwillingness to give in.While maintaining strategic focus on the US,China can actively promote three major global initiatives,consolidate and improve the national strategic system and capabilities,strengthen the construction of strategic forces and joint command and combat systems,etc.,to respond to the US"integrated deterrence"strategy.

关 键 词：“一体化威慑” “零信任”架构 互操作性 拒止性威慑 

分 类 号：D712.22[政治法律—政治学]