自然和市场双重风险下中国小农户的化肥投入及风险规避动机辨析  

Analysis of Fertilizer Input and Risk-aversion Motives of Smallholder Farmer in China under Dual Risk of Nature and Market

作　　者：郭江影 钟甫宁[2] CUO Jiangying;ZHONG Funing

机构地区：[1]江苏省农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,南京210014 [2]南京农业大学经济管理学院,南京210095

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2024年第11期4-17,共14页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“我国三大平原‘资源—要素—政策’相协调的粮食和生态‘双安全’研究”(编号:20&ZD094);国家自然科学基金委员会面上项目“农时视角下的小农机械化:对我国不同熟制地区粮食收获机械化的考察”(编号:72073065);江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD);南京农业大学中央高校基本科研业务费项目(编号:KYCXJC2023006)。

摘　　要：已有研究多从自然风险角度解释农户的化肥高量施用行为,忽略了市场风险的影响,本文旨在分析自然和市场双重风险下小农户的施肥行为及其风险规避动机,验证小农户增施化肥是为了规避收入风险而非仅仅是产量风险。本文在传统边际分析框架的基础上,构建自然风险和市场风险双重制约下小农户的施肥决策分析框架,并利用全国农村固定观察点跟踪调查数据实证分析自然和市场双重风险下中国小农户的化肥投入行为,检验小农户化肥投入的风险规避动机,进一步考察买入户和卖出户在风险条件下的施肥行为差异。研究发现,中国小农户施肥高量问题由来已久,其化肥施用强度在过去20年一直维持着较高且稳定的水平。自然风险和市场风险越大的地区,小农户越倾向于增施化肥,说明小农户增施化肥是为了规避收入风险,其施肥行为不仅受自然风险影响,还受市场风险影响。相较于卖出户,买入户出于对收入风险的规避和粮食消费安全的追求,对风险的反应更敏感,化肥施用强度更高。本文的研究结论表明,加强基础设施建设、稳定粮食市场有助于缓解小农户高量施肥。Previous studies have mainly explained farmers'high fertilizer application behavior from the perspective of natural risk,while ignoring the effect of market risk.This paper aims to examine smallholder farmers'fertilizer application behavior and their risk-aversion motives under the dual risk of nature and market to clarify that smallholder farmers apply more fertilizer under risky conditions to avoid income risk rather than avoid yield risk alone.Based on traditional marginal analysis framework,this paper constructs an analysis framework for smallholder farmers'fertilization decision-making under the dual constraint of natural risk and market risk.Using the National Rural Fixed Observation Point Data in China,we analyze smallholder farmers'fertilizer application behavior under the dual risk of natural and market,thereby testing the risk-aversion motives of smallholder farmers,and further examine the difference in fertilizer use between grain-buying and grain-selling households under risky conditions.The results show that Chinese smallholder farmers have been applying high amounts of fertilizer for a long time and the fertilizer application intensity has maintained a relatively high and stable level over the past 20 years.Furthermore,we find that smallholder farmers are more inclined to increase fertilizer use in areas with greater natural risk and market risk,indicating that smallholder farmers increase fertilizer use to avoid income risk and their fertilization behavior is not only affected by natural risk,but also by market risk.Finally,compared to grain-selling households,grain-buying households are more sensitive to price fluctuations and have higher fertilizer application intensity due to income risk aversion and the pursuit of food consumption security.The above results indicate that strengthening the infrastructure construction and stabilizing grain market can help alleviate the high fertilizer application intensity by smallholder farmers in China.

关 键 词：施肥量 收入风险 粮食市场风险 自然风险 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济]