基于社会心理风险因素构建预测青少年抑郁症病人自杀的风险预测模型  

Construction of a suicide risk prediction model for adolescent patients with depression based on psychosocial risk factors

作　　者：罗静伊 洪刚 任小群 LUO Jingyi;HONG Gang;REN Xiaoqun(Jiangxi Rongjun Hospital,Jiangxi 330103 China)

机构地区：[1]江西省荣军优抚医院,330103

出　　处：《全科护理》2024年第23期4366-4370,共5页Chinese General Practice Nursing

摘　　要：目的:基于社会心理风险因素构建预测青少年抑郁症病人自杀的风险预测模型,并验证其预测价值。方法:选取医院2019年1月—2023年10月收治的160例青少年抑郁症病人为研究对象,按照7∶3的分配比例分为建模组112例和验证组48例。建模组病人根据是否有自杀行为分为短见组51例与正常组61例。收集建模组病人临床基线资料,进行短见组与正常组的组间因素分析,以确定影响青少年抑郁症病人自杀倾向的危险因素。以独立影响因素为基础,结合验证组资料收集,构建列线图预测模型并验证。结果:二元Logistic分析结果提示,青少年抑郁症病人的社会支持评定量表(Social Support Rating Scale, SSRS)中的客观支持、主观支持、支持利用度评分,家庭功能量表(Family Assessment Device, FAD)的家庭角色、情感、一般功能评分与内外向、精神质、神经质人格特质评分等均是影响病人自杀倾向的相关因素(均P<0.05);病人SSRS主观支持、支持利用度评分是影响病人自杀倾向的独立保护因素(均P<0.05);FAD情感评分与神经质人格特质评分是影响病人自杀倾向的独立危险因素(均P<0.05)。结合验证组资料构建列线图预测模型,模型验证结果显示,建模组受试者工作特征(receiver operating characteristic, ROC)曲线的线下面积(area under curve, AUC)为0.922;验证组ROC的AUC为0.968,校正曲线拟合度良好(均P<0.05)。结论:基于社会心理风险因素构建列线图预测模型可为病人心理干预治疗方案的制定提供数据参考,或可规避青少年抑郁症病人自杀事件的发生。Objective:To construct a suicide risk prediction model for adolescent patients with depression based on psychosocial risk factors,and verify its predictive value.Methods:A total of 160 adolescent patients with depression admitted to the hospital from January 2019 to October 2023 were selected as the research objects,and were divided into the modeling group(112 cases)and the verification group(48 cases)according to the allocation ratio of 7∶3.Patients in the modeling group were divided into the short-sighted group(51 cases)and the normal group(61 cases)according to whether they had suicidal behavior.Clinical baseline data of patients in the modeling group were collected,and inter-group factor analysis was conducted between the short-sighted group and the normal group to determine the risk factors affecting suicide tendency of adolescents with depression in the collected information.Based on independent influencing factors and data collection of verification group,a nomogram prediction model was constructed and verified.Factor analysis Results:suggest that teenagers depression patients′Social Support rating Scale(Social Support Rat-ing Scale,SSRS)of objective Support,subjective Support,Support utilization rating,family function Scale family assessment device,The role,affective intervention,general function score,internal and external orientation,psychosis and neurotic personality trait score were all related factors affecting the suicidal tendency of patients(all P<0.05).SSRS subjective support and support utilization score were independent protective factors affecting suicide tendency(all P<0.05).FAD emotional intervention score and neurotic personality trait score were independent risk factors for patients′suicidal tendency(both P<0.05).A nomogram prediction model was constructed based on the data of the verification group.The model verification results showed that the Area Under Curve(AUC)of the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve of the modeling group was 0.922.The AUC of ROC in the verification g

关 键 词：青少年 抑郁症 自杀风险 社会心理因素 列线图 

分 类 号：R473.74[医药卫生—护理学]