人类活动对中国降水季节性变化的影响  

Impact of Human Activities on Seasonal Changes in Precipitation in China

作　　者：胡家晖 董思言[2] 王磊斌 李伟[4] 李庆雷 HU Jiahui;DONG Siyan;WANG Leibin;LI Wei;LI Qinglei(Climate Center of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Urümqi 830002;National Climate Center,Beijing 100081;Hebei Normal University,Shijiazhuang 050027;Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044;National Meteorological Information Center,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]新疆维吾尔自治区气候中心,乌鲁木齐830002 [2]国家气候中心,北京100081 [3]河北师范大学,石家庄050027 [4]南京信息工程大学,南京210044 [5]国家气象信息中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2024年第6期643-655,共13页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金联合基金U2342228;新疆气象局引导性项目YD2022006;中国气象局青年创新团队项目CMA2023QN16;新疆气象局科技创新发展青年基金项目QN202307;新疆气象局重点项目ZD202304。

摘　　要：利用第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)模拟日降水结果进行统计降尺度处理,在评估降水季节性相关指标降尺度模拟性能基础上,分析人为强迫对中国不同气候分区降水季节性指数(SI)等指标的影响,并利用未来中等排放情景(SSP2-4.5)模拟分析了未来不同强迫造成中国降水季节性的变化。结果表明:CMIP6模式数据统计降尺度后集合模拟的中国区域雨季和降水季节性指数分布与观测分布有较高的一致性,并且对雨季起始和持续时间趋势模拟较好。根据CMIP6模式不同强迫试验结果统计降尺度,发现1961~2014年人为强迫和自然强迫共同作用(ALL)与自然强迫(NAT)相比,中国区域降水量减少,雨季持续时间增加,但NAT和ALL强迫下的雨季起始时间差异较小。同时也发现历史时期中国区域降水季节性的变化主要受到雨季持续时间和降水量变化的影响,未来降水季节性变化将更强。本研究通过人类活动对中国降水季节性变化的影响进行了深入的分析,这些将为相关降水季节性变化影响和适应策略提供科学支持。The performance of downscaling simulations from the Sixth International Coupling Model Comparison Program(CMIP6)was utilized to analyze the effects of human activities on the Seasonality Index(SI)across different climate zones in China.Moreover,possible future changes in rainfall seasonality due to various forcings under the medium emission scenario(SSP2-4.5)were examined.The results demonstrate a high consistency between the distribution of rainy season predictions of the downscaling CMIP6 model and the observed SI in China.The ensemble average of the downscaling simulations accurately captured the trends related to the onset and duration of the rainy season.In recent decades,human activities and natural forcings(ALL)have led to reduced precipitation yet increased rain season durations in China compared with scenarios with only natural forcing(NAT).However,the onset of the rainy season showed minimal differences between the NAT and ALL forcing scenarios.Changes in rainfall seasonality over the past 50 years are primarily attributed to alterations in the duration and intensity of the rainy season.Analyzing these impacts should provide scientific support for understanding variations in seasonal precipitation and formulating effective coping strategies.

关 键 词：降水季节性指数 CMIP6模型 人类活动作用 未来预估 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]