草原承包权安全认知对牧户草地流转行为的影响——基于“第二轮土地承包到期后再延长30年”政策背景  

Impact of pastoral household’s security cognition regarding grassland contracting rights on grassland transfer behavior:On the policy background of "extending the second round of land contracting for another 30 years after expiration"

作　　者：张立中[1] 高芬 刘璐[1] 张雨澍 周杰[3] ZHANG Lizhong;GAO Fen;LIU Lu;ZHANG Yushu;ZHOU Jie(College of Economics and Management,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083;New Balhu Right Banner People's Government,Hulunbuir 021300;College of Economics and Management,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot 010018,China)

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,海淀100083 [2]新巴尔虎右旗人民政府,呼伦贝尔021300 [3]内蒙古农业大学经济管理学院,呼和浩特010018

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2024年第11期71-79,共9页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然基金地区项目(71963027);内蒙古自治区自然科学基金项目(2018MS07001);内蒙古自治区哲学社会科学规划项目(2015JDB057)资助。

摘　　要：草原产权制度是土地政策的重要组成部分,维护草原承包关系稳定成为推进草地资源优化配置、促进牧民增收的有力举措。文中通过构建牧户草地流转行为模型,从交易费用和制度风险角度阐释了牧户草原承包权安全认知对草场流转行为的影响机理,运用内蒙古自治区4个盟市416户调查数据,通过双栏模型(DHM)、条件混合回归法(CMP)等进行了实证检验。研究发现:1)有58.65%的牧户认为现有的草原产权不够安全,且30.77%的牧户预期在第二轮土地承包到期后,国家会重新分配草地。2)牧户草原承包权安全认知对草地流转行为有显著促进作用,草原承包权安全认知每提高一个单位,牧户草地转入概率和转入规模分别提高10.57%和39.10%。3)异质性分析表明,草原承包权安全认知对草地流转的正向影响在非牧业收入较低的家庭中更加显著。文中引入工具变量及更改变量设定等一系列检验都证明了结论的稳健性。Grassland property right system is an important part of land policy.Maintaining the stability of grassland contracting relationship has become a powerful measure to promote the optimal allocation of grassland resources and increase herders' income.A model of grassland transfer behavior for herdsmen was constructed to elucidate the impact mechanism of herdsmen's security awareness of grassland contracting rights on grassland transfer behavior from the perspectives of transaction costs and institutional risks,and was examined through the Double-Hurdle Model(DHM) and Conditional Mixed Process(CMP) method by applying the survey data of 416 households from four leagues and cities in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.Three main results are obtained:Firstly,58.65% of herdsmen believe that the current grassland property rights are not sufficiently secure,and 30.77% anticipate that the state will redistribute grasslands upon the expiration of the second round of land contracts.Secondly,the perception of security regarding grassland contracting rights among herdsmen significantly promotes grassland transfer behavior.For every one-unit increase in this perception,the probability and scale of grassland transfers by herdsmen increase by 10.57% and 39.10%,respectively.Thirdly,Heterogeneity analysis shows that the positive effect of grassland contracting right security perception on grassland transfer is more significant in households with lower non-herding income.A series of tests such as the introducing instrumental variables and changing variable settings in this research confirm the robustness of the findings.

关 键 词：承包权安全认知 草地流转 承包到期 双栏模型 条件混合回归法 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]