2000~2020年雅鲁藏布江中部流域大气气溶胶时空变化及影响因素  

Spatiotemporal Variation and Influencing Factors of Atmospheric Aerosol in the Middle Region of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin from 2000 to 2020

作　　者：王薇 邬光剑[1] 范丽行 安宝晟[1] 杨泽睿 黄菊 WANG Wei;WU Guang-jian;FAN Li-hang;AN Bao-sheng;YANG Ze-rui;HUANG Ju(State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System,Environment and Resources(TPESER),Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院青藏高原研究所,青藏高原地球系统与资源环境全国重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《环境科学》2024年第12期7003-7011,共9页Environmental Science

基　　金：第二次青藏高原科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0201);国家自然科学基金项目(41725001)。

摘　　要：基于MODIS MCD19A2数据集的气溶胶光学厚度(AOD),结合气象数据、土地利用/地表覆被分类数据和社会经济数据,利用加权回归的季节趋势分解、Theil-Sen Median斜率估计等方法,分析了雅鲁藏布江中部流域2000~2020年AOD的时空分布及变化特征,并通过地理探测器、XGBoost模型和SHAP等方法,定量估算了各影响因素对AOD时空变化的贡献率.结果表明,雅鲁藏布江中部流域AOD的空间分布呈现出明显的异质性,主要受地形控制,AOD高值集中于海拔低于4300 m的河谷中.受降水和风速的影响,AOD的季节性差异明显,冬季均值最高,超过50%的区域AOD均值大于0.01;夏季最低,仅12.8%的区域均值大于0.01.近期雅鲁藏布江中部流域的AOD整体呈现出升高趋势,AOD年均值从0.008上升到0.012,河谷区域升高更为显著.气候变化和人类活动强度增加是造成AOD升高的主要原因.平均气温、平均风速、人口密度和GDP的变化与AOD的变化呈正相关,降水量变化与AOD变化呈现负相关,其中平均气温的升高对近期AOD变化的贡献率达到61.1%.Based on the aerosol optical depth(AOD)of the MODIS MCD19A2 dataset from 2000 to 2020,combined with meteorological data,land use/land cover data,and socioeconomic data,the spatiotemporal distribution of AOD in the middle region of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin was analyzed using STL and Theil-Sen Median trend estimation and the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors on AOD was revealed using GeoDetector,XGBoost model and SHAP analysis.The results showed that the spatial heterogeneity of AOD in the middle region of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin was obvious,which was mainly controlled by topography,with high AOD value concentrated in the valley with the altitude lower than 4300 m.Owing to the precipitation and surface wind speed,the seasonal difference of AOD was obvious,with the highest in winter.From 2000 to 2020,AOD in the middle region of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin showed an increasing trend,with the annual average AOD rising from 0.008 to 0.012.This increase was especially strong in the valley area,where the AOD was significantly impacted by enhanced anthropogenic activities and the abundance of sand sources of exposed riverbed.Among the factors influencing AOD in the middle region of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin,the changes in mean annual temperature,mean wind speed,population density,and GDP were positively correlated with the changes in AOD,whereas the changes in precipitation were negatively correlated.In particular,the increase in temperature was the factor that contributed predominantly(61.1%)to the recent changes in AOD.

关 键 词：雅鲁藏布江中部流域 气溶胶光学厚度(AOD) 时空变化 XGBoost模型 SHAP 地理探测器 影响因素 

分 类 号：X513[环境科学与工程—环境工程]