气候变化对北极勒拿河流域年和季节径流的影响  

Responses of annual and seasonal streamflow to climate changein the Lena River basin in Arctic region

作　　者：吕韶燕 唐寅 汤秋鸿[2,3] 李海明 肖瀚 谢定昇 LYU Shaoyan;TANG Yin;TANG Qiuhong;LI Haiming;XIAO Han;XIE Dingsheng(Laboratory of Coastal Groundwater Utilization&Protection,College of Marine and Environmental Sciences,Tianjin University of Science&Technology,Tianjin 300457,China;Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;State Key Laboratory of Groundwater Pollution Simulation and Control for Environmental Protection,Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,Beijing 100012,China)

机构地区：[1]天津科技大学海洋与环境学院滨海地下水利用与保护实验室,天津300457 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京100101 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [4]中国环境科学研究院国家环境保护地下水污染模拟与控制重点实验室,北京100012

出　　处：《地理学报》2024年第11期2811-2829,共19页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41901042);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA19070302)。

摘　　要：北极勒拿河流域径流是北冰洋的主要淡水来源之一,对北极大气、海冰热力过程和海洋温盐环流产生重要影响。随着气候变化的加剧,勒拿河流域径流的变化日趋显著。为探究勒拿河流域径流变化对气候变化的响应机制,本文使用M-K趋势检验分析了1975—2014年勒拿河流域气候及径流的变化趋势并通过构建耦合融雪冻土模块的abcd-cr水文模型,结合气候情景模拟和径流弹性系数分析,对不同气候情景下年和季节尺度的径流变化量及径流对气温和降水变化的敏感性进行了定量估算。结果表明:①1975—2014年勒拿河年和季节尺度的平均气温均呈上升趋势;年及夏秋季的平均降水呈上升趋势,春冬季平均降水呈下降趋势;年及春、秋、冬季径流呈显著上升趋势,夏季径流呈减少趋势。②气候情景模拟结果量化了降水变化和气温变化引起的年及季节径流的变化量。③敏感性分析结果表明年径流随降水的增加而增加,随气温的升高而减少;降水变化对季节径流的影响与年径流类似,但引起的径流变化幅度在不同季节呈现显著差异,其中夏季径流变化幅度最大,冬季径流最小;气温变化对季节径流的调节相较年径流更为复杂,受蒸发的季节性与冻融过程的相互影响,春季径流随气温的增加而增加,其余季节径流随气温的增加而减少。Streamflow from the Lena River is one of the major sources of freshwater in the Arctic Ocean and has a significant impact on the Arctic atmosphere,sea ice thermal processes and ocean thermohaline circulation.In recent years,streamflow in the Lena River basin is changing significantly with intensified global warming.In order to investigate the response of streamflow to climate change in the Lena River basin,the study firstly analyzed the trends of precipitation,air temperature and streamflow in the basin from 1975 to 2014 using the M-K trend test.Then,we constructed the abcd-cr hydrological model by considering a coupled snowmelt and permafrost module.Based on the abcd-cr model,we simulated climatic scenarios and quantitatively estimated the relative changes of annual and seasonal streamflow and the elasticities of annual and seasonal streamflow to changes in air temperature and precipitation respected to different climate scenarios.Results showed that:(1)Both the annual and seasonal air temperatures in the Lena River showed increasing trends from 1975 to 2014;The annual,summer,and autumn precipitation presented increasing trends while the spring and winter precipitation showed decreasing trends;The annual,spring,autumn,and winter streamflow had significant increasing trends while the summer streamflow showed a non-significant decreasing trend.(2)The climate scenario simulation results quantified the variations in annual and seasonal streamflow resulting from changes in precipitation and air temperature.(3)The results of sensitivity analysis showed that annual streamflow increases with the increase of precipitation and decreases with the increase of air temperature;The impact of precipitation change on seasonal streamflow is similar to that of annual streamflow change.However,the impacts of air temperature varied in different seasons.Specifically,the relative change of summer streamflow is the largest,while that of winter streamflow is the smallest.The impact of air temperature on seasonal streamflow is more compl

关 键 词：勒拿河 径流 气候变化 abcd-cr模型 敏感性 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学] P467[水利工程—水文学及水资源]