中小城市通学碳排放空间格局及影响机理——以河南开封为例  

Spatial patterns and influencing mechanisms of carbon emissionsfrom urban school trips in small and medium-sized cities:A case study of Kaifeng

作　　者：荣培君 杨群涛[1,2] 郑智成 秦耀辰 李阳[2] RONG Peijun;YANG Quntao;ZHENG Zhicheng;QIN Yaochen;LI Yang(College of Collaborative Innovation Center on Urban and Rural Harmonious Development of Henan Province,Henan University of Economics and Law,Zhengzhou 450046,China;College of Geography and Environmental Science,Henan University,Zhengzhou 450046,China)

机构地区：[1]河南财经政法大学城乡协调发展河南省协同创新中心,郑州450046 [2]河南大学地理与环境学院,郑州450046

出　　处：《地理学报》2024年第11期2929-2948,共20页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42101206);河南省优秀青年科学基金项目(242300421144);河南省科技创新人才项目(24HASTIT050)。

摘　　要：快速城镇化背景下的居民低碳通学是实现城市高质量和可持续发展的重要途径。然而,其影响因素及其作用路径尚不清晰。本文选择空间快速扩张和重构的典型城市河南开封为案例区,借助多源时空大数据和大样本微观调研数据,采用可解释机器学习方法构建SHAP模型,阐释低碳通学的非线性作用机理及阈值效应。研究发现:①通学碳排放的空间差异明显,外圈层快速扩张区域应作为城市碳减排工作的关键区域;②时空距离是对通学碳排放产生实质性影响的最关键因素,初中可依照15 min生活圈理念进行规划,但是小学的设置需进一步优化至13 min步行圈以内;③学—住建成环境的科学治理可为低碳通学提供客观保障,居住地和学校周边路网密度在10~14 km/km^(2)、土地利用混合度在2.4~2.7之间、小学的学校规模在1000人以内,对低碳通学是最为有利的;④学生独立生存技能的缺失亦是制约低碳通学的重要因素,安全上学路的构建和步行巴士的推广将成为儿童友好型城市构建的有效路径。研究结果可为城市基础教育资源均等化和低碳发展的精细化规划及治理提供决策参考。In the context of rapid urbanization,promoting low-carbon school trips is a crucial strategy for fostering sustainable urban development.However,the factors influencing carbon emissions from school trips during compulsory education remain unclear.This study focuses on Kaifeng,a city experiencing rapid spatial expansion and reconstruction.Utilizing multi-source spatiotemporal big data,large-scale micro-surveys,and the SHAP model(an interpretable machine learning method),we explore the nonlinear mechanisms and threshold effects of lowcarbon school trips.The results reveal the following:(1)Carbon emissions from school trips show significant spatial disparities,making rapid expansion of outer areas critical for emission reduction efforts.(2)Temporal and spatial accessibility are the most critical factors impacting carbon emissions.Secondary schools should be planned within a 15-minute walking circle,while primary schools need optimization to be within a 13-minute one.(3)Effective management of schools surrounding the built environment can support low-carbon school trips.Optimal conditions for low-carbon school trips include a road network density of 10-14 km/km^(2),a land use mix of 2.4-2.7,and primary schools accommodating up to 1000 people.(4)The lack of students'ability to travel independently also restricts low-carbon school trips.Developing safe routes and promoting walking school buses are effective strategies for creating childfriendly cities.The research results provide valuable insights for the refined planning and governance of urban education resource distribution and low-carbon development.

关 键 词：低碳社区 建成环境 居民通学 行为空间 SHAP模型 开封 

分 类 号：TU984.113[建筑科学—城市规划与设计] X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]